Event: on the morning of March 5, 2022, the 2022 government work report was released (hereinafter referred to as the report).
Core conclusion: development is the first priority, steady growth, stable employment and structural adjustment; The means is very pragmatic, that is, continue to "release water, real estate and infrastructure"; Continue to remind that we should not underestimate the country's determination and strength to make every effort to stabilize growth. In the short term, the economy will tend to bottom up and recover. The probability of economic momentum in the second quarter is stronger than that in the first quarter. We should still attach great importance to the investment opportunities in the stable growth chain.
1. This is a meeting of "facing the difficulties, strengthening confidence and climbing over the ridge". It is also a meeting to urge all parties to "work hard and do good work". It is also a meeting to correct the deviation "across the board, add weight at all levels" and strengthen the implementation of policies. It points to that many stimulus policies have been introduced at present, but the effect of stabilizing growth has not been shown, In essence, because many policy objectives are usually "both necessary and necessary", there are various hard constraints behind them.
2. Three key objectives:
The GDP target is about 5.5%, which belongs to the expected upper limit. Steady growth is still a hard requirement, and various policies will continue to increase; The deficit ratio fell to about 2.8%, which is the lower limit of expectations. However, considering the carry forward balance of nearly 2 trillion, the actual expenditure increased; The scale of new special bonds is 3.65 trillion, which is expected to be the same as last year, but the rhythm is obviously ahead, and the scope of investment will also be expanded.
3. The general tone of the policy continues to be "stability first, seeking progress in stability; the combination of cross cycle and counter cycle; doing a good job in six stability and six guarantees". Among them, steady growth is a hard requirement, emphasizing that "steady growth should be placed in a more prominent position" and adding "adhering to development is the first priority"; Somewhat surprisingly, the newly mentioned "focusing on economic construction" is deleted, but it does not need to be broken down.
4. There are nine key tasks this year, including "stabilizing growth, stabilizing market players and ensuring employment, deepening reform, innovation driven, expanding domestic demand, rural revitalization, expanding opening-up, green and low-carbon, and ensuring people's livelihood"; Among them, the second item "stabilizing the main body of the market and ensuring employment" was newly added (last year was a detailed task, not a headline). The other eight items generally continued the ranking and general requirements of last year, but the detailed requirements are different. Specifically, the downward pressure on the economy this year is significantly greater than that of last year, and we have to make every effort to stabilize growth. The key is to "release water, real estate and infrastructure".
The first "axe" - "water release", loose money, expand credit, increase leverage and broaden finance, and may cut interest rates as soon as March.
The second "axe" - the "release of real estate", always requires the continuation of "no speculation in real estate, support reasonable housing demand and implement policies according to the city"; Continue to suggest that local regulation is expected to be further substantially loosened, focusing on the "new citizens" house purchase policy.
The third is to "release infrastructure". New and old infrastructure will work together, focusing on water conservancy projects, three-dimensional transportation network, energy base and pipe network corridor; Continue to remind whether the expansion of infrastructure will be late or absent, and the growth rate of infrastructure may reach about 8% or even higher.
In addition, policies such as "promoting reform, scientific and technological innovation, expanding domestic demand, rural revitalization, regional coordination and double carbon" are also important directions. We will focus on the correction of the "double carbon" policy, and the energy consumption constraint is expected to be significantly reduced this year.
5. There are new requirements for risk prevention, which continue to require "holding the bottom line without systemic risk", but add emphasis on "doing a good job in risk disposal in the economic and financial field" and "establishing a financial stability guarantee fund".
6. Performance rules of major categories of assets during the two sessions: the historical experience from 2011 to 2021 shows that the yields of stock market and national debt rose and fell by half in the week before the two sessions, without obvious rules; During the two sessions, due to the unclear policy, the market risk appetite was under pressure, the stock market generally fell, and the Treasury bond yield generally fell; One month after the closing of the two sessions, the clear policy made the market sentiment repaired and the stock market generally rose, which was the case in the past three years, while the yield of 10Y treasury bonds rose and fell by half.
Attached are 9 tables comparing the economic objectives, reform policies and industrial policies of 2022 with those of previous years
Risk tips: the evolution of epidemic situation, policy trend and changes in external environment exceed expectations
