Key investment points
General trend study and judgment: pay attention to the main line of stable growth in the near future
In the fourth quarter, the monetary policy showed a more positive tone next year, emphasizing that the monetary policy is "stable" and "more active and promising". We reiterated our view that the monetary policy is expected to be more active and promising next year. Under the main theme of "me first" monetary policy, we believe that there is still room for further easing the intensity of post municipal policies, Now and even the first half of next year is the best time window for monetary policy easing.
This week entered the penultimate trading week before the year. The overseas epidemic disturbance superimposed on the attack on "fake foreign capital". The overall inflow trend of funds going north slowed down. In the absence of incremental capital admission, the market showed a pattern of stock game. With the arrival of the institutional ranking at the end of the year, the sectors with the highest growth rate this year have adjusted one after another. In particular, the lithium battery sector has made significant adjustments on Monday and Friday. At the same time, the capital flows to the low-level stagflation sector represented by consumption + infrastructure, and the A-share market deduces the ultimate high-low switching.
The market has given several reasons for the increasing differences in popular sectors: 1. Trading congestion; 2. Position adjustment and share exchange; 3. Growth slowed. Based on the analysis and discussion of the above points, we believe that: the trading congestion is not tenable, and the trading heat of the boom track is significantly reduced; With a low base and explosive growth this year, the growth rate will indeed slow down next year, but it still ranks in the forefront of the whole a; In the context of this year's rich profits, we believe that the position adjustment and stock exchange of institutions, especially domestic capital, may be the reason for the significant adjustment of the industry. We believe that the differences and fluctuations in the future sector will continue to enlarge, but the intensive implementation of medium and long-term new plans shows that the logic of long-term development remains unchanged. Next year, new energy vehicles are still expected to be an important starting point for promoting consumption. From the perspective of pe-g, the sectors with small growth this year still have a certain cost performance.
On the other hand, with the combination of steady growth stimulus and next year's double expectation of the price increase of the consumer sector and the narrowing trend of ppi-cpi, the downstream consumer sector has strong certainty of profit repair. We expect the switching market to be sustainable. So, under steady growth, how can the consumer industry make efforts?
Looking back on history, we find that the economic situation from 2008 to 2009 is similar to that of next year - the medium and short cycles are in the downward stage. In the dual cycle downward economy, consumption has become the main force driving economic growth. In 2008-2009, we introduced policies to stimulate consumption, especially for the automobile and home appliance industries, and increased the stimulation of the sinking rural markets of the automobile and home appliance industries, so as to expand consumer groups and stimulate the growth of domestic demand.
From the perspective of market performance, stimulated by policies, the consumer sector showed an obvious upward trend, lasting for about one year. In particular, the automobile industry and home appliance industry directly benefited from the policy boost, and the prosperity was significantly higher than that of other sectors. After the policy was implemented and presented to the statements, it began to "two-stage growth" to continue the high prosperity under the policy dividend of the industry.
The profitability of the consumer industry under the stimulus policy has been significantly improved. It takes about half a year from the implementation of the policy to the performance end. Profit stability: required consumption > optional consumption, profit elasticity: optional consumption > required consumption. The year-on-year growth of automobile parent net profit TTM is significant, mainly due to the low base effect.
At the same time, the valuation side was also boosted by policies and industry prosperity. The optional consumption valuation ushered in a significant repair, and the mandatory consumption also improved significantly on the basis of maintaining a relatively high valuation. On the whole, both the optional consumption directly benefiting from the policy dividend and the mandatory consumption of the just needed attribute have ushered in the double drive of valuation performance under the steady growth.
Looking forward to the future, under the economic background of shrinking demand and weakening expectation, boosting consumption in 2022 is expected to become an important starting point, and more industrial policy support is expected to be obtained in terms of consumption upgrading and market sinking. According to the historical situation, the profitability of the consumer sector is likely to be significantly improved in 22 years, and the performance elasticity is high under the low base effect. At the same time, the valuation side is also significantly repaired under the boost of policies and prosperity. The consumer sector has ushered in a double-click market driven by valuation performance, and the required consumption has performed before the optional consumption, Optional consumption elasticity is greater.
For the growth track, the short-term sector is expected to fluctuate more under the influence of multiple factors. In the long run, the development of the industry is mainly supported by the top-level planning. The realization process of carbon neutralization has a long way to go. The logic of the long-term development of the industry remains unchanged. As an important starting point for steady growth next year, the prosperity sustainability is expected to be maintained. Pe-g is selected
<1的优质性价比板块。
风险提示：政策执行不及预期、经济恢复不及预期、疫情防控不及预期
