Comments on key news of the week: the new energy sector fluctuated violently, rising against the trend in the direction of steady growth
The A-share market ushered in a correction due to the impact of capital and sentiment. Many factors, such as the spread of overseas Omicron strains, exacerbated global market fluctuations, the pace of monetary easing in China did not meet expectations, and the trend of capital inflows northward was also significantly weakened. The new energy sector fluctuated violently under the superposition of bad impact and trading factors, while the food and beverage, building materials and other industries related to the steady growth direction rose against the trend.
Macro highlights: 1. Democratic congressman Manchin publicly expressed that he did not support the Biden administration’s “reconstruction of a better future bill”; 2. The central bank announced that the one-year LPR was lowered by 5bp to 3.8% after 20 months, while the five-year LPR remained unchanged; 3. The US GDP growth rate in the third quarter was revised up to 2.3% month on month, with the initial value of 2.1%; 4. In November, PCE in the United States increased by 5.7% year-on-year and core PCE increased by 4.7% year-on-year, both exceeding expectations; 5. The national Standing Committee launched a policy layout around “stabilizing foreign trade”.
Resumption of A-share market: essential consumption led the rise
Index and style: A-Shares fell, dominated by essential consumption and other services. The Shanghai 50 index and the Shanghai index ranked first, with weekly increases and decreases of 0.35% and – 0.39% respectively. From the absolute performance of style, essential consumption and other services, the market, medium P / E ratio and low profit stocks are dominant. In terms of style relative performance, ultra small market value, small market value and scientific and technological innovation growth are weak relative to the market performance.
Industry performance: most fell, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage and building materials leading the increase.
Leading index: in the past 20 days, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 dominated, and coal, public utilities and building materials led the rise.
Valuation tracking: the valuation of A-Shares fell, and the differentiation of Industry Valuation remained stable.
Overseas market review: most global stock markets rose
Most of the world’s major stock indexes rose, with Nasdaq, French CAC and S & P 500 leading the performance.
U.S. stock market: the index rose in an all-round way, and the industry rose in an all-round way. Optional consumption, information technology and telecommunications services led the increase, with growth and small cap style dominant. The index valuation is upward as a whole, and the industry valuation is upward as a whole. Hong Kong Stock Market: the Hang Seng Index rose slightly, the industry rose and fell, and the public utilities, telecommunications and information technology industries led the gains. The valuation of Hang Seng index is upward, and most industry valuations are upward.
Performance of major categories of assets: RMB appreciation, China’s risk appetite fell
The global market rose this week, dominated by developed markets. Commodity prices generally rose, with crude oil, industrial metals, copper and gold all rising. In terms of interest rate bonds, the long and short end interest rates of US bonds rebounded; In terms of credit bonds, China’s 3-year AAA + medium note credit spread narrowed and 5-year credit spread expanded; In terms of convertible bonds, the convertible bond index rose. In terms of exchange rate, the US dollar index fell and the RMB and the euro appreciated. In terms of volatility, the VIX Index fell. In terms of commodity relative performance, copper gold ratio and oil gold ratio rose, while London gold / CRB industrial metals fell. In terms of the relative performance of the bond market, the interest rate spreads between China and the United States and between Germany and the United States have narrowed. In terms of the relative value of stocks and bonds, the revised risk premium under Wande’s full a caliber rebounded, and the risk premium of S & P 500 fell.
Leading assets: industrial metals, crude oil and MSCI developed markets dominated on the 20th.
Risk warning: Overseas volatility intensifies; Unexpected changes in macroeconomic policies; Regulatory policy exceeded expectations
