Core conclusions:
1. What is the current mood of the hard technology track described by the turnover rate? From the perspective of plate congestion and trading heat, the current main hard technology plates are not crowded, and the overall mood is relatively low. We use the 5-day average turnover rate (based on the circulation market value) to measure the trading heat and congestion of the sector. Through observation, it is found that the excess return will peak and fall periodically after the turnover rate breaks through a certain threshold. At present, the turnover rates of the main hard technology sectors are below the threshold and close to the central position for two years, reflecting that the current sector congestion and trading heat are relatively low.
2. What are the general adjustment space and time rules of the high boom track in history? From the historical recovery, the periodic adjustment of the boom growth plate in the process of supporting the science and technology industry cycle lasted about 2-3 months (30-50 trading days), with a range of about 15%.
3. How much range and time has the hard technology track pulled back from the high position? Compared with the empirical law of the resumption of trading, there may be little room for further sharp decline in most hard science and technology sectors. However, from the perspective of adjustment time, the adjustment time of mainstream tracks such as semiconductor, energy storage, photovoltaic, new energy vehicles and military industry is around 25-35 trading days. It may take some time to digest the trading days close to the lower edge of the historical adjustment range.
4. What is the prosperity of hard technology track next year? Overall, in the case of the overall decline in the growth rate of A-share performance next year, the hard technology sector is expected to continue to maintain a high prosperity. From the perspective of consistent performance and expected profit forecast of subdivided industries, although the growth rate of semiconductor equipment, materials, intelligent vehicles, photovoltaic (equipment and components), new energy vehicles (equipment, lithium batteries and parts) and military electronics has decreased in 22 years, it still maintains a high growth rate (the performance growth rate is more than 30% and the change rate is lower than that in 21 years)
<50%）；相比之下，逆变器、新能源运营商、风电零部件、工业软件、军工整机及配套22年业绩增速较21年进一步提升，除此之外，随着产业周期的推进，物联网也有望进一步上调业绩预期。
5.如果增速降速，那么高景气赛道还能否跑赢？从过往规律来看，即使个股增速在明年回落后，如果其绝对增速依然能够进入全市场前4组（跑赢60%个股），则仍有较大概率能够取得超额收益。我们把历史的全A非金融增速和P60增速进行拟合得到：全部A股P60增速=20%+0.4683833*非金融A股增速，中性假设下，预测明年全A非金融净利润增速为2.1%——从而估算出明年的P60增速大约为21.2%。即大于这一增速的个股，无论其增速变化率是正还是负，都有较大可能取得超额收益。从这个角度来看，明年增速回落幅度不大且继续维持高增速的硬科技板块有望继续获得超额收益。
6.如何看待22年春季躁动时的硬科技赛道？
（1）1月春季躁动前后，增量资金可能是公募发行开门红，对应热门基金大概率是业绩好的高端制造类基金。
（2）年报预告的窗口期，高景气的方向也仍然聚焦在这些高端制造里。
（3）根据中央领导对中央经济工作会议关于“适度超前进行基础设施建设”的解读中提到的，在减污、降碳、新能源、新技术、 Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) 集群领域加大投入，预计政策发力方向也会对新基建有所支撑。
（4）因此，目前高端制造方向的调整，很可能是为春季躁动打开了空间。具体方向上，2021年高端制造的板块中，价格大幅上涨是关键词，也是股价的核心驱动，但是展望2022年，价格可能容易出现松动，因此我们更看好纯粹的量的逻辑（没有价格变化驱动），量的逻辑关注：军工、新能源车（电池、零部件、电子、整车）、新能源大基地（风、光、储、运营商）、半导体（设备、材料）。
风险提示：宏观经济风险，政策风险，公司业绩不及预期风险。
