Industry trend: this week, the public utilities and environmental protection index rose 0.83%, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.39%. Among the utilities sector, clean energy power generation and thermal power sector increased significantly, rising by 4.51% and 3.02% respectively this week; The environmental protection sector and the water treatment sector had the largest decline, down 4.70%.
Key points of this week:
1) Utility perspective:
Provinces have successively carried out annual power transactions in 2022, and the market price has exceeded expectations: Recently, Jiangsu and Guangdong completed annual power transactions in 2022 respectively. According to the annual transaction results of Jiangsu power market, the total transaction volume of Jiangsu long-term association in 2022 was 264.729 billion kwh, and the average transaction price was 0.467 yuan / kWh, Compared with the benchmark price of 0.391 yuan / kWh for coal-fired power generation, it increased by 19.36%. Among them, 924 million kilowatts were traded in green power trading, with an average transaction price of 0.463 yuan / kWh. In 2022, Guangdong’s annual long-term electricity volume reached 254.164 billion kwh, and the annual average transaction price of bilateral negotiation was 0.497 yuan / kWh, an increase of 9.7% compared with the local benchmark price of 0.453 yuan / kWh for coal-fired power generation. 679 million kwh of green power was traded, with an average transaction price of 0.514 yuan / kWh. Meanwhile, according to the 2022 electricity market trading plan between Jiangsu Province and Guangdong Province, all public coal-fired units are required to participate in market transactions. In terms of nuclear power, Jiangsu Province requires Jiangsu Nuclear Power Co., Ltd. to have an annual market trading power of no less than 16 billion kwh, and Guangdong Province requires Ling’ao nuclear power and Yangjiang nuclear power to enter the market and directly participate in market transactions. This means that part of the annual long-term transaction price of Jiangsu Nuclear Power Co., Ltd. ( China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ), Ling’ao Nuclear Power and Yangjiang Nuclear Power (CGN) is also close to the rise of thermal power. Under the background of the rise of electricity price, the performance is expected to exceed expectations next year. It is recommended to focus on nuclear power + new energy two wheel drive, which fully benefits from the subject of the rise of market-oriented electricity price of nuclear power in Jiangsu [ China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ] 。 At the same time, the price of thermal power rises higher than expected. It is recommended that the target of thermal power transformation new energy [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) (a + H)] [ Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) ] which will not be dragged down by thermal power performance next year, the transaction price of renewable energy market rises, and the target of pure green power operation [ Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) ] [ China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ] is recommended.
2) Environmental protection perspective:
We will continue to promote the resource utilization of reclaimed water, and pay attention to the quality of water ecological environment. Recently, the Ministry of water resources, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of housing and urban rural development jointly issued the pilot scheme for reclaimed water utilization and allocation in typical areas. The plan clearly focuses on water shortage areas, water environment sensitive areas and water ecological fragile areas, and selects cities at or above the county level with good basic conditions to carry out pilot work. According to the requirements of the pilot scheme, the utilization rate of reclaimed water in pilot cities in water shortage areas, Beijing Tianjin Hebei and other areas shall reach more than 35%, 45% and 25% respectively. In addition, the plan proposes to expand the field and scale of reclaimed water use, and comprehensively use reclaimed water for industrial production, municipal miscellaneous use, ecological environment, agricultural irrigation and other fields according to the water quality requirements of different uses. Further attention has been paid to the use of reclaimed water. It is recommended that the leading enterprise of ozone generator [ Qingdao Guolin Environmental Technology Co.Ltd(300786) ] widely used in municipal water treatment and industrial sewage treatment should be recommended. At the same time, it is suggested to focus on the leading enterprise of civil centrifugal pump [ Guangdong Lingxiao Pump Industry Co.Ltd(002884) ]. The preferential catalogue of “environmental protection tax” was issued to promote the vigorous development of environmental protection industry. Catalogue of preferential enterprise income tax for environmental protection, energy conservation and water saving projects (2021 version) and catalogue of preferential enterprise income tax for comprehensive utilization of resources (2021 version) Issued and effective as of January 1, 2021. Among them, the catalogue of environmental protection, energy conservation and water saving enterprises involves environmental pollution prevention and control, energy conservation and emission reduction technical transformation, water conservation transformation and unconventional water utilization projects; The catalogue of comprehensive resource utilization enterprises involves symbiotic and associated mineral resources, waste water (liquid) & waste gas, waste residue and renewable resources. It is suggested to pay attention to [ Beijing Geoenviron Engineering & Technology Inc(603588) ] of the dragon head of hazardous waste resources and [ Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co.Ltd(603568) ] of waste incineration.
Market information tracking:
1) Carbon market tracking: carbon emission quota of national carbon market this week (CEA) the total turnover is 2012 million tons, with a total turnover of 925 million yuan. The highest transaction price is 51.33 yuan / ton, and the lowest transaction price is 45.01 yuan / ton. The closing price on Friday is 49.52 yuan / ton, and the total turnover of local carbon trading markets is 890500 tons. In terms of average transaction price, the highest average transaction price in Guangdong market is 55.47 yuan / ton, and the lowest transaction price in Fujian is only 0.91 yuan / ton.
2) Natural gas price tracking: according to the data released by Zhuo Chuang information, during the current cycle, the weekly average price of LNG ex factory transactions nationwide this week was 4643.52 yuan / ton, down 212.90 yuan / ton month on month, down 4.38%. China’s LNG fell first and then rose this week.
2) Coal market price tracking: according to the data released by the coal resources network, cci5500 closed at 880 yuan / ton this week. From the point of origin, Yulin 5800 kcal index closed at 923 yuan this week, down 2 yuan on a weekly basis; The Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) 5500 kcal index closed at 840 yuan, with a weekly ring ratio of 5 yuan; Datong 5500 kcal index closed at 870 yuan, down 20 yuan on week.
investment portfolio
[ China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ]+[ China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ]+[ Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) ]+[ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) ]+[ Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) ]+[ Qingdao Guolin Environmental Technology Co.Ltd(300786) ]
Risk tip: the policy promotion is less than expected, the price of power coal rises, the water supply of hydropower is less than expected, and the price of electricity will be reduced.
