Key investment points
The market is developing healthily. In 2021, the market achieved a balance in structural adjustment, which changed the previous trend of taking big as beautiful. The size and market value are recognized by reasonable value. This is also the embodiment of the healthy development of the market. Of course, the market is not really good if everyone is good together, but it can not be valued from a single perspective of market value. In the context of economic restructuring, the structural market will continue. Industries and companies that benefit from structural transformation are bound to be mined and revalued by the market. The narrow shock consolidation in 2021 is the pace adjustment in the upward process, and also lays a good foundation for the steady development of the market in 2022. In 2022, the market system will continue to improve and the structural transformation of the economy will continue. It is worth looking forward to the steady progress of the market. Therefore, from the perspective of the market, we expect that 2022 will be an upward process, with a slow but stable pace, which is also a manifestation of the healthy and mature market.
The macro environment will remain stable. In 2022, we believe that in the post epidemic era, China's economic development can maintain stable growth, and the growth rate will not be too high, because the epidemic has not completely passed and China's economic transformation is still in progress. Liquidity can also be appropriately abundant, basically forming a stable macroeconomic environment. The stability of the macro environment will also provide a stable environment for the market. The performance will become the leading factor in the valuation, the liquidity promotion will gradually take the second place, and the performance will be reflected in a long time. Therefore, the upward speed of the market is not fast.
Market structure balance. After the structural adjustment in 2021, the market structure is basically balanced. The valuation level has a good margin of safety. This also lays a good foundation for the valuation improvement in 2022. Based on the prediction and judgment of performance and liquidity, we believe that there is a certain room for improvement of market risk appetite in 2022, with 10-20% room for improvement on the index, and the upward pace of the market will not be too fast, basically maintaining the pattern of shock and upward.
The water is clear and the wood is flourishing. We don't think there will be flood irrigation in 2022, but the liquidity will still be abundant. This has also laid a stable and good valuation foundation for the market. At the same time, although the epidemic situation is still repeated, it has struggled with the epidemic situation for two years and accumulated more and more experience in medical research. Vaccines and specific drugs have shown good results, and the epidemic is under control. The world is expected to gradually flow in 2022, which is conducive to economic development and global vitality. Consumption, carbon reduction and technological growth are the main opportunities in 2022. The autonomy and controllability of agriculture and industry will promote the development of the industry, and we can pay attention to the structural opportunities for beneficial development. The main investment ideas are: the return of the consumer industry. The decline of economic growth will restrain the consumer industry, and it is expected to rebound in 2022 driven by the internal circulation policy. In addition to the traditional consumption of food, beverage and household appliances, the rebound after the pressure of industries such as culture and media, education, medicine and leisure services deserves special attention. Strong long-term driving force for carbon reduction. Carbon reduction is a long-term process, and the promotion of the industry is also a long-term process. New energy, energy conservation and environmental protection will benefit from the promotion of carbon reduction process. Carbon peak and carbon neutralization will be able to promote both old and new industries. Excavation of technology growth companies. As a pillar industry in the future, most emerging industries are science and technology growth companies, which are long-term industries worthy of attention. However, the short-term defect is that the performance is difficult to keep up with the valuation, so the stock price fluctuates greatly. However, the adjustment is a good time to enter, which deserves attention.
