Weekly view: which sectors of the spring market will usher in valuation repair?
We suggested last week that we are optimistic about the market at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, suggesting that the medium-term logic of positive layout in the first quarter of next year has not changed. There is room for macro policies, technical stabilization of social finance and next year’s economic growth are still within a reasonable range, and there will be deterministic repair opportunities for undervalued blue chips. With the “correction” of strict constraints on carbon emission reduction, the short-term value revaluation of the traditional thermal power sector caused by the transformation of old and new energy from substitution to “joint symbiosis”. In addition, the power end operation and transmission conversion of power grid biased towards new energy benefit from the phased main line market of green power construction. At the same time, the transformation and upgrading of traditional power grid to smart grid or the focus of new energy infrastructure, it is still recommended to pay attention to the financial market represented by brokers under the comprehensive registration system and the expected inflection point of real estate, Infrastructure related to the reform of central enterprises (railway, green power), etc.
We believe that although the “valuation depression” of the A-share green power sector has been basically repaired, the “pull-out valuation” stage has not been completed: considering its logic, as the core of the steady growth policy in the first quarter – the combination of order explosion and upstream liberalization has brought down costs and increased profit margins, As well as the high boom track investment, the market has experienced climax periods such as “new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic and wind power”. The overall valuation of relevant sectors has reached more than 60 times. At present, the green power sector is still in a reasonable allocation range.
Among them, there are two ideas about the allocation of valuation depression in the green power sector: 1) the quality of green power leaders related to Hong Kong stocks is not poor, and the valuation has a “price advantage” relative to a shares; 2) New energy infrastructure and power operation, especially those that can be combined with the three-year pilot reform of central enterprises, will be the real policy force point and market main line. In addition, under the pressure of the last year of the three-year pilot of national reform next year, it is suggested to pay close attention to the improvement of profit margin and equity incentive / asset injection under the order restructuring of military mainframe factories next year.
At the same time, the valuation repair of the value sector focuses on two lines: 1) the revaluation of the undervalued sector under the “easing” policy. In the balance between “steady” overall employment and steady economic growth, the policy of “one size fits all for out of school education and training” may be difficult to reproduce. For example, the media, education and other sectors have the power of valuation repair. On this basis, yuanuniverse may spread as the main line of the most important science and technology trend theme investment next year; 2) Next year, ppi-cpi is in the convergence channel. In response to the supply shock, China’s resource and economic security may play a more prominent role. The mandatory consumer goods represented by planting and blood products benefit from multiple benefits such as the upward CPI, the improvement of leading concentration and national strategic replenishment. In addition, we can also pay attention to the opportunities of traditional Chinese medicine and OTC central enterprises.
Risk tip: the transmission rate and mortality of the new mutant strain Omicron are higher than expected, the implementation of relevant reform policies in the field of common prosperity is lower than expected, and the public data used in the research report may lag behind or not be updated in time.
