Core conclusion: the adjustment in the last two weeks, Not because of trading congestion (the rise and fall deviation of each market sector is not large, and the turnover rate is not very extreme), nor does it come from the deterioration of profits and economic expectations. From the perspective of commodity high-frequency prices, economic expectations and policy expectations, the fundamental expectations of many sectors with high economic relevance have improved slightly. The adjustment in the last two weeks may be mainly due to the market fluctuations caused by investors’ adjustment style In the past month, it can be clearly observed that almost most of the industries leading the rise are the sectors with weak overall performance this year, such as food and beverage, aquaculture and media. Compared with the previous semiconductors, new energy and resource products, the component of valuation repair is a little larger. This change in logic means that the investors who made money in the last month and those who made money from March to October have completely different investment ideas and stock selection ideas, which also leads to the insufficient agglomeration of money making effect, resulting in the market adjustment in the last two weeks. However, considering that there is no problem with the overall capital and profit pattern, it will not affect the big logic of the cross-year market.
(1) The adjustment in the last two weeks did not come from trading congestion. The recent drastic adjustment of some sectors led to the weakness of the index in the last two weeks, but there is no need to worry too much about this adjustment. First, before this adjustment, the rise and fall deviation of each sector in the market was not very large, and several important adjustments were made in March 2020, July 2020, February 2021 and September 2021 Before the adjustment, the standard deviation of the rise and fall of the primary industry in three months reached a high of 15% – 20%, and there was a large transaction congestion in some parts. For the rise since November, the plate difference is not very extreme.
(2) The adjustment does not come from further concerns about profitability (or economy). In the last month, the economic expectation has been stable. In terms of the prices of major industrial products, they have continued to rebound since late November. Although the strength is much weaker than the rise from August to September, it at least means that the traditional cyclical industrial fundamentals have been stable.
(3) This is mainly due to the market fluctuations caused by investors’ style adjustment. In view of the fact that there are no problems in transaction congestion and economic expectations, the adjustment in the last two weeks may be mainly due to the market fluctuations caused by investors’ style adjustment. In the last month, it can be clearly observed that almost most of the leading industries are sectors with weak overall performance this year, such as food and beverage , breeding, media, etc. Although these sectors are also expected to improve their fundamentals, compared with the previous semiconductors, new energy and resource products, the component of valuation repair is a little larger, and the data support for the improvement of prosperity is weak. This change in logic means that the investors who made money in the last month and those who made money from March to October have completely different investment ideas and stock selection ideas, which also leads to the insufficient agglomeration of money making effect, resulting in the market adjustment in the last two weeks. However, considering that there is no problem with the overall capital and profit pattern, the twists and turns this time should be relatively small and will not have an impact on the big logic of the cross-year market.
Risk factors: the real estate market fell more than expected, and US stocks fluctuated sharply.
