Key investment points:
Key points:
1. The soul of the growth market is the industrial cycle. The industrial cycle context of the growth market since 2019 is self controllable - 5aiot - carbon neutralization - metauniverse. Like the interpretation of the industrial cycle under the background of smart phones and mobile Internet from 2010 to 2015, it follows the evolution law from infrastructure, hardware and equipment to scenarios, software and applications.
2. In the context of the science and technology industry cycle from 2010 to 2015, the growth market can be roughly divided into three stages. The first stage is the general rising market led by electronics and computers after the V-shaped reversal from 2009 to 2010. The second stage is the periodic callback of growth under the downward profit environment from 2011 to 2012. During this period, the pullback of media computers is small. The third stage is the growth high in 2013-2015. Media Mobile phone mobile games, TV and Internet plus software have been broken out in the past.
3. In the growth callback stage from 2011 to 2012, the science and technology industry cycle is in the window period of transition from the rise of hardware to the rise of software. There are several core factors: first, the prosperity of the hardware industry has fallen under the environment of weak economic operation; Second, the matching degree between the valuation and performance of the hardware industry decreased; Third, the penetration rate of smart phones has not been raised to a certain threshold, leading to the expansion of the scale of the software and application market. Until the breakthrough of the content end in 2013, it catalyzes the penetration rate of smart phones and 3G to further exceed the threshold, resulting in the large-scale growth of hardware and software.
4. This round of science and technology industry cycle also needs to go through the transition stage from the rise of hardware to the landing of software. On the one hand, the improvement of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is linear and will gradually transition to market dominance, but the stock price is ahead of the fundamentals. On the other hand, the outbreak of software side still lacks carriers and needs to meet the penetration threshold necessary for intelligence, Therefore, the subsequent growth may face structural differentiation.
5. There are two clues to follow-up growth. One is to select industries with high matching between valuation and performance from the perspective of cost performance, such as military industry, media and computer. The other is to find a more definite direction along the deductive path of the industrial cycle and pay attention to the subdivided fields such as software development, it services and optical images under the background of automotive intelligence and meta universe.
