Affected by the impact of internal and external funds and emotions, a share capital opened low and went low this week, continuing the shock callback trend. On the disk, the new and old core assets were significantly differentiated, the new energy sector fell from a high level, while the traditional core assets and steady growth sector rose against the trend. What is the valuation level of the core assets of institutions at the beginning of the year? How to choose the market main line in the new year stage?
Steady growth bucked the trend and rebalanced new and old core assets. From the perspective of micro sentiment, the current round of market sentiment warming began in early November. After two months of internal and external resonance repair, the inflow intensity of northbound trading and China's financing sentiment indicators have weakened from a high level. In the future, it may face downward pressure for a period of time. In the environment of weakening market sentiment, the main track has been significantly callback since the recent year. The steady growth sector continued the previous recovery trend, and the new and old infrastructure chain, real estate and consumption continued to lead the two cities. From the valuation trend, the recent valuation related to the new energy industry chain has dropped significantly, while the valuation of traditional core assets has risen against the trend, and the valuation of new and old core assets has been rebalanced.
At the beginning of the year, is it still expensive? Since the beginning of this year, the institutional group stock portfolio has entered a continuous valuation cycle after hitting a record high valuation at the beginning of the year. After a year of valuation digestion, Based on the valuation since 2017 (revaluation of the valuation system) has fallen back to the mean state as a standard. Further, if we define the new organization of energy and semiconductor as the traditional core assets, we can see that since the fourth quarter of 2020, the traditional core assets have obviously frothy, and this year has gone through two rounds of valuation process: the first round appeared in March this year. Performance expectations move down at the same time; The second round took place in the second half of this year, but the performance expectation did not move further down with the valuation. Considering that the absolute value (about 30 times) and relative value (lower than the historical center) of the current valuation have returned to a reasonable level, the traditional core assets have medium-term allocation value at this stage.
Stable growth in history to the resumption of a wide credit cycle. In terms of recovery, the steady growth policy has been fully launched to the inflection point at the bottom of credit, with a time lag of less than one quarter. In the past 10 years, steady growth and wide credit cycle have gone through the process of [putting forward the tone of steady growth → wide currency → wide finance → full force of steady growth → credit confirmation inflection point → credit expansion] from the bottom of credit to credit expansion. The full force of steady growth policy is one to two months ahead of the inflection point of the bottom of credit. In the stable growth cycle, the duration of credit environment expansion is usually more than half a year. In the past three rounds of steady growth cycles, after the steady growth policy was fully implemented, the short-term success rate of big finance was higher, and the medium-term sustainability of consumer stocks was better.
Steady growth is the core beta of the cross year stage. In the previous report, we proposed to dilute the restless expectation at the beginning of 22 years. The core lies in the reduction of the probability that the incremental funds exceeded the expectation at the beginning of next year, and the weakening of the pure logic of risk preference promotion in the previous spring restlessness. However, the overall market environment in the 22-year cross-year stage is not bad. After the high-level meeting made clear the tone of stable growth, it is currently in the initial stage of comprehensive policy development. From the above resumption, the credit conditions are about to stabilize in a real sense. Referring to historical experience, under the stable growth cycle, the credit widening superposition m1-ppi scissors gap is repaired upward, and value stocks are expected to continue to lead the market for another year. Reiterating that downplaying pure restless expectations and returning to fundamental pricing logic, steady growth is the biggest beta main line in the next quarter.
Core conclusions and strategic suggestions: weaken restless expectations over the next year, return to fundamental pricing, and continue to lead steady growth. (i) The steady growth direction has been established and initial results have been achieved. The credit conditions are expected to stabilize in a real sense at the end of the year, and continue to be optimistic about value restoration in the medium term, including food and beverage, high-quality banks and developers, and power operation; （2） The new and old infrastructure development directions are mainly: construction / building materials, scenery and communication; (III) upstream cost reversed auto parts, small household appliances, and independent main line military industry.
Risk tips: 1. The epidemic situation is out of control; 2. A sharp recession; 3. The policy has changed more than expected.
