Key investment points:
On December 19, we released "autumn harvest and winter storage: making progress by retreat and focusing on stabilizing the growth chain", suggesting that the market has entered the window period of structural transformation. It is expected that the fluctuation will increase and make progress by retreat in the short term. Recently, with the rebalancing of Baotuan plate, the market volatility has increased. Looking forward to Q1 in 2022, is there still a restless market in spring?
How to view the nature of recent adjustment
We believe that the reason for the recent market adjustment lies in the rebalancing of the positions of the Baotuan sector at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. On the one hand, with the help of the resumption, it can be found that at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the Baotuan plate often faces rebalancing, and the market volatility also increases, such as the 50 differentiation of Shanghai Stock Exchange in early 2018, the semiconductor differentiation in early 2020 and the Mao plate differentiation in early 2021. On the other hand, taking the spring market from 2012 to 2021 as the observation sample, the median rise time window is 50 trading days and the maximum value is 70 trading days.
At present, with the acceleration of wide credit, This round of market has started since late September (see the series of eight theories on winning in late autumn for details). As of December 19, the rising time window has reached 60 trading days. On this basis, with the rebalancing of the Baotuan plate at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the market has entered the window of structural switching, and the volatility has increased accordingly. In other words, the key driver of the recent market adjustment is not the system risk, but the structural switching.
Spring agitation is still worth looking forward to
Looking forward to 2022, from the perspective of the return rate of equity funds, it is expected to be better than that in 2021. Specifically, in 2022, despite the economic slowdown, the liquidity began to relax, that is, the residual liquidity was positive. From the stage of short cycle economy, it was similar to 2012, 2013 and 2019. Mapped to equity, the annual average of 2012, 2013 and 2019 showed the characteristics of structural bull market, and the fund yield was strong.
From the perspective of 1-2 weeks, we believe that the market is still in the window period of group rebalancing and structural optimization. After the rebalancing of Baotuan plate, we believe that the market will enter the restless window period in spring from mid to late January. First, at the macro level, with the promotion of broad credit, the market liquidity easing expectation is expected to be further strengthened; Second, at the meso level, the annual report forecast began to be disclosed one after another, which made the new wind mouth of growth clear.
What clues will the layout focus on next year
Looking forward to 2022, we suggest paying attention to three configuration clues: Science and innovation board, inflation chain and stable growth chain. First, pay attention to the new air outlet represented by the science and innovation board, The industry attaches importance to semiconductors (Analog Design and materials), national defense equipment (complete machine factory and aeroengine) and consumer electronics (automotive electronics and metauniverse); secondly, it pays attention to the dilemma reversal opportunity of inflation chain, and the industry pays attention to agriculture (seeds, pigs) and mass consumption (food); third, pay attention to the growth opportunities of the stable growth chain, and the industry pays attention to high-quality leaders such as real estate, banking, household appliances and home furnishings.
Risk tip: performance growth is lower than expected; Liquidity tightening exceeded expectations.
