abstract
A week’s events
China: the margin of financing environment for real estate enterprises continued to improve, and the “14th five year plan” for digital transportation was released. On December 20, the one-year LPR in December was lowered to 3.8%, which pushed down the financing cost of the real economy, kept the five-year LPR unchanged, and continued to implement the central government’s policy requirements for real estate regulation. It is expected that the probability of significant adjustment of LPR next year is small, but there is still room for slight reduction of short-term LPR quotation in the first half of the year due to the need of stable growth; Recently, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued the notice on doing a good job in M & a financial services for risk disposal projects of key real estate enterprises, including steadily and orderly carrying out M & a loan business of real estate projects and increasing support for bond financing. It is expected that the M & A financing environment of real estate projects will continue to improve, Resolving industry risks in a market-oriented manner is expected to continue; On the 21st, Ning Jizhe expressed his views on stabilizing expectations, macro policies and five major theoretical and practical issues. New infrastructure, double carbon and other fields were highlighted, and the awareness of risk prevention was significantly enhanced; On the 22nd, the 14th five year plan for digital transportation development was released, which will build a development pattern of “one brain, five networks and two systems”. With the issuance of special bonds as soon as possible and the steady promotion of infrastructure REITs, it is expected that the new infrastructure of transportation will enter a period of rapid growth next year; On the 23rd, the national Standing Committee identified five cross cycle adjustment measures and deployed four specific work after RCEP came into effect. Next year, China’s opening-up level will be further improved, and high-end green manufacturing, cross-border e-commerce, service trade, international logistics and other fields are expected to benefit.
Overseas: Biden bill was opposed again, and the energy crisis in Europe intensified. On December 19 local time, Democratic Senator manqin said he would not vote for Biden’s “rebuilding a better future” bill, which forced the bill to be postponed until January next year, which may increase the uncertainty of the Democratic Party in next year’s mid-term election; On the 20th local time, the Japanese parliament passed a supplementary budget of about 35.99 trillion yen, which is mainly used to restore the economy affected by the covid-19 epidemic, and set up a special fund to support semiconductor production enterprises. At present, the Japanese economy is facing multiple pressures. Short-term Japanese consumption and semiconductor related industries may recover, which also pushes up Japan’s debt risk; On the 21st local time, the supply of “Yamal Europe”, the main natural gas pipeline in Russia and Europe, fell to zero. Considering the surge in demand in cold weather, the European energy crisis may further intensify in the short term; On the 22nd local time, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that the annualized quarter on quarter correction of real GDP in the third quarter was 2.3%. Consumer spending, inventory investment and fixed investment were revised upward, while exports were significantly reduced, PCE continued to rise, and the uncertainty of economic recovery increased under the influence of the new variant virus and the delay of the “reconstruction of beauty” act, We still need to pay close attention to the policy changes of the Federal Reserve and the implementation of the infrastructure bill; On the 22nd local time, Holzman, member of the Management Committee of the European Central Bank, said that in extreme cases, interest rates may be increased at the end of next year or early 2023. The reduction or suspension of conventional bond purchase plans will be a signal of interest rate increase. At present, supply chain bottlenecks, energy crisis and epidemic related restrictions may affect European economic recovery, and short-term inflation may remain high.
High frequency data: upstream: crude oil price decreased on a weekly basis, while iron ore and cathode copper increased on a weekly basis; Middle reaches: the price index of means of production and the price of main industrial raw materials decreased on a weekly basis; Downstream: real estate sales rose on a weekly basis, and the trend of automobile retail was flat; Prices: the prices of vegetables and pork decreased week on week.
Focus next week: China’s annual profit rate of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size in November (Monday); Japan’s unemployment rate in November (Tuesday); the U.S. monthly rate of existing housing contract sales index adjusted in November and the initial value of commodity trade in November (Wednesday); Chicago PMI in December (Thursday); China’s PMI data in December (Friday).
Risk tip: Overseas inflation is high, and China’s demand recovery is less than expected.
