Summary:
The global epidemic continued to set a new record. In the past week, the increase of covid-19 in the world has become more and more intense. As of December 23, 97000 cases have been added in the world and 277000 cases in the United States, Europe There are 480000 new cases (excluding Russia), all of which are breaking a new record. The high transmission of Omicron variant is the main reason for this phenomenon. China also faces the risk of multi-point and local recurrence of the epidemic recently. There are new local cases in cities such as Shaoxing, Zhejiang, Dongguan, Guangdong and Xi'an, Shaanxi. In addition, Beijing is about to host the Winter Olympic Games, superimposing the peak of spring transportation, and the Chinese epidemic Emotional risk can not be ignored. Threatened by the epidemic, the Netherlands, Germany, France and Austria strengthened the epidemic prevention blockade policy last week. In the follow-up, we need to be vigilant against the expansion of the impact of the global epidemic prevention blockade policy on asset prices. However, it should also be pointed out that up to now, the Omicron variant does show mild and mild symptoms. Unlike the surge of confirmed cases, there is no obvious upward trend in the number of new deaths in the world.
Recently, China's foreign policy and economy have shown signs of differentiation. Overseas, last week, the Federal Reserve announced that it would speed up and reduce bond purchase, and would speed up to end bond purchase in March 2022. It is expected to release the signal of "considering discussing interest rate increase" at the March meeting; Although the European Central Bank is more biased than expected, it will actually gradually reduce the scale of bond purchase in 2022 to 20 billion by October 2022. Moreover, the recent continuous deterioration of overseas epidemic has been reflected in the level of economic data again, which has led to the strengthened anti epidemic blockade policies of Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and other countries. In addition, due to differences within the Democratic Party, the process of the US $1.75 trillion spending bill has been blocked again. In China, the policy warm wind is blowing frequently. The Ministry of Finance said that the advance approval of 1.46 trillion special bonds has been issued, and it is expected to accelerate the release in the first quarter of next year. The national standing committee also mentioned "helping enterprises to rescue, promoting the steady development of foreign trade and maintaining the stability of RMB exchange rate", and the trend of monetary marginal loosening continues. Following the reduction of reserve requirements and targeted interest rates, the one-year LPR interest rate was reduced by 5 BP to 3.8% on December 20. The growth rate of credit pulse and social financing stock in the forward-looking data shows signs of bottoming, but the synchronous data still continues to be under pressure. At present, commodities still need to wait for the confirmation signal of "policy bottom" driving "economic bottom".
Generally speaking, under the background of monetary marginal loosening, we are relatively friendly to China's stock index. We continue to be optimistic about China's stock index from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year; The recent trend of commodities is not yet clear. We still need to wait for the confirmation signal that the "policy bottom" drives the "economic bottom". The real estate and infrastructure highly related to domestic demand industrial products have not improved significantly. On the one hand, foreign demand industrial products are facing the risk of demand impact caused by overseas epidemic. On the other hand, the European energy crisis last week has twists and turns, with falling temperature, shortage of natural gas, weakening wind power The multi factor resonance of nuclear power interruption once pushed the European electricity price to an all-time high, but then under the influence of the increase of offshore natural gas supply and the increase of margin on the exchange, the UK natural gas futures price fell by more than 40% in three days.
Strategy (order of strength): the three major stock indexes (IH / if / IC) are bargain hunting and multi matching; commodities are neutral, of which Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) can still bargain hunting and multi matching; treasury bonds are neutral;
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; China curbs commodity overheating; The game risk between China and the United States is rising; The situation in the Taiwan Strait.
