Inflation in the United States continues to rise and the energy crisis in Europe intensifies. The core PCE price index of the United States in November rose 4.7% year-on-year, a new high in nearly 40 years, indicating that the inflation of supply chain problems and rising raw material prices is being transmitted to the consumer side. In November, personal income increased by 0.4% month on month, down 0.1 percentage points from October. Us personal expenditure increased by 0.6% month on month in November, in line with market expectations, down 0.8 percentage points from October. Due to rising inflation and falling income, us personal spending slowed in November compared with October. In November, durable goods orders increased by 2.5% month on month, better than the market expected 1.6% and the previous value of 0.1%, indicating that demand is still strong. On the other hand, as Europe enters the coldest months of winter and Russia restricts natural gas supply, European electricity prices and natural gas prices continue to soar. Since this year, the price of natural gas in Europe has increased by 729% and the electricity price has soared by 500%. The sharp rise in energy prices has led some industrial sectors in Europe to limit production capacity. If prices continue to rise, a large number of factories will have to face the choice of reducing production capacity or closing down. Affected by this, the initial value of the euro zone consumer confidence index in December recorded - 8.3, a decrease of 1.5 compared with November, indicating that the market is more worried about the economic outlook.
As the United States and Europe enter the Christmas holiday, the stock markets of many countries are closed or closed early on Friday, and the market trading is relatively flat. The market was still affected by the epidemic news this week. Previously, AstraZeneca said that the study showed that covid-19 vaccine was effective against Omicron. The US Food and Drug Administration approved Pfizer's covid-19 oral drug, which alleviated the market's concern about the epidemic. The recovery of risk appetite boosted the collective rise of the three major stock indexes in the United States. The NASDAQ rose 3.19%, the S & P 500 rose 2.28%, the Dow rose 1.65% and major stock indexes in Europe and Asia also rose generally. In the foreign exchange market, affected by the recovery of risk appetite, the US dollar index fell 0.56% to 96.1327. Non US currencies generally rose. The euro rose 0.75% to 1.1321 against the US dollar and the pound rose 1.22% to 1.3399 against the US dollar, despite the deterioration of the epidemic in European countries and the energy crisis. In terms of commodities, rising inflation and the weakening US dollar boosted the international gold price. Comex gold futures rose 0.29% to US $1810.1/oz. News such as covid-19 vaccine booster and oral drugs boosted market sentiment. Oil prices rebounded sharply after hitting the bottom on Monday. NYMEX crude oil futures rose 4.3% to US $73.76/barrel this week.
This week, the Central Bank of China invested a net 50 billion yuan in the open market. In terms of interest rate, the 1-year LPR quotation was lowered in November, breaking the fact that since September 2019, the 1-year LPR quotation has always been adjusted synchronously with the 1-year MLF bidding interest rate The point spread is fixed at 90 basis points The situation of (0.9 percentage points) marks the further marketization of interest rate, that is, when the policy interest rate remains unchanged, the loan interest rate can be adjusted in time with the change of market interest rate. However, it should be noted that the central bank has only reduced one-year LPR this time, and the five-year period has not changed. Therefore, the intention to reduce the short-term liquidity cost is obvious, and the medium and long-term capital cost has not been reduced. In addition, this time The reduced LPR is achieved by reducing the quotation, which is weaker than the direct reduction of MLF interest rate by the central bank. In terms of policy, the central office and the State Council Office strengthen the market supply and price stability during the new year's day and Spring Festival in 2022, and require to make overall arrangements for the supply of coal, electricity, oil and gas transportation, effectively increase the supply of coal, especially electric coal, effectively improve the power supply guarantee capacity, steadily increase the production and supply of refined oil, and ensure the heating gas in the north. We will fully implement the party government responsibility system for food security and the mayor responsibility system of "vegetable basket", strengthen market operation monitoring, and earnestly ensure the supply and price stability of important livelihood commodities such as grain, oil, meat, eggs, milk, fruits and vegetables, so as to ensure that the supply of daily necessities is constantly on file and not out of stock. In the capital market, most of the major market indexes callback this week, the downward pressure of the Shanghai index before the resistance level of 3700 points is increasing, and the gem index has fallen continuously, falling below the half year line.
