Ping An View:
Real economy: the number of newly diagnosed diseases in the local area rebounded, the operating rate fell, the margin of real estate sales and land transactions improved, and pork prices continued to fall. 1) From Monday to Friday (December 20 to December 24) this week, 327 local confirmed cases were added in Shaanxi, Guangxi, Zhejiang and other seven provinces, cities and autonomous regions, an increase from 315 cases in the same period last week. The central office and the State Council Office jointly issued a document this week calling for "reducing the flow and gathering of people during the" two festivals ". We believe that many places will once again propose the" local new year "this year 。 2) Industrial operating rate fell. This week, the national blast furnace operating rate, automobile tire semi steel tire operating rate and coking enterprise operating rate all decreased month on month, and the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plant is at the second low level since the beginning of the year. The constraints of policy factors on industrial production have been significantly relaxed, and the weakening of industrial production may be more due to the suppression of terminal demand. 3) The finished products went to the warehouse, and the port iron ore inventory fell for the first time in the fourth quarter of this year. This week, rebar social inventory and electrolytic aluminum inventory continued to go, while port iron ore inventory decreased for the first time since the fourth quarter of this year. 4) Both commercial housing sales and land transactions showed marginal improvement. This week, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities has rebounded to the same period in 2019, and the transaction area of land in 100 cities has rebounded for two consecutive weeks last week. After Hangzhou reduced the requirements for the third centralized land supply, all 35 plots launched were sold, of which 24 plots entered the lottery stage after the bidding reached the upper limit, which attracted great attention. 5) Most of the black commodity futures prices rose, and the wholesale price of pork continued to fall. This week, the futures prices of coking coal and coke of coal series, iron ore and rebar of iron and steel series increased month on month compared with last week. In contrast, the spot prices of the above four black commodities were relatively weak this week, and only the main coking coal in Shanxi rose. This differentiation is related to the expectation of stable growth. We believe that there is a time lag from the "policy bottom" to the "market bottom", and pay attention to the risk that the speed and amplitude of the economic bottom rebound are lower than expected. This week, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index decreased by 0.6% month on month, of which the wholesale price of pork decreased by 4.0% month on month, which has fallen for three consecutive weeks.
Capital market: this week, the capital level was significantly relaxed, most of the main stock indexes fell, most of the yields of the main term treasury bonds fell, the US dollar depreciated and the RMB appreciated. In the money market, dr007 and R007 closed at 1.90% and 2.07% respectively on Friday, down 21.51bp and 22.32bp respectively compared with last Friday. This week, the net payment of government bonds was 76.3 billion and the net investment of the central bank was 50 billion. In the stock market, most of the main A-share indexes fell this week, due to the phased realization of stable growth and monetary easing expectations, regulatory norms, capital going north and profit taking at the end of the year, especially the high valuation new energy track. We believe that the current stable growth environment is relatively friendly to the cyclical sector. In the bond market, except that the yield of one-year treasury bonds rose 1.77bp month on month this week, the yields of other main term treasury bonds fell, and the term interest spread narrowed. This week, the one-year LPR interest rate was lowered as scheduled. From the perspective of bill interest rate, the current physical financing demand is low, the credit easing policy may take some time to work, and the risk of short-term adjustment in the bond market is limited. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index closed at 96.13 on Friday, down 0.56% from last Friday. This week, the onshore and offshore RMB appreciated by 0.07% and 0.23% against the US dollar respectively. Although the central bank raised the foreign exchange reserve ratio, the RMB exchange rate may continue to be strong in the short term under the high boom of foreign exchange settlement and export at the end of the year.
Risk tip: steady growth is less than expected, the epidemic situation in China is spreading at multiple points, and geopolitical conflicts are escalating.
