Key investment points:
Since the Spring Festival, the epidemic situation in China has been spreading continuously. With the stronger transmission power of Omicron, China's epidemic prevention policy of dynamic zeroing will not change. Under the requirements of coordinating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the more onerous task of epidemic prevention and control means that all regions will encounter more difficulties in economic construction, so it is more necessary to continue the steady growth policy.
In terms of policy, according to the data of social finance in January and PMI in February, "wide credit" has initially appeared. However, considering that the current trend of demand recovery is not stable, especially in the face of the high base level in the second quarter of 2021, the current complex and changeable external environment, the spread of China's epidemic and the internal inertia of the downward trend of real estate, Policy regulation should still give high demand attention and care. Looking forward to the future, under the condition that important achievements have been made in preventing and resolving financial risks and the macro leverage ratio has decreased significantly, the necessity of further reducing leverage has decreased significantly, which has created a good macro environment for promoting wide credit to protect demand; However, the "flood" type of monetary regulation is still undesirable, and targeted support policies must be adopted, that is, the loose care of money and credit will still be dominated by structural tools.
In the A-share market, the power of the steady growth policy will not only bring wide credit, but also help restore the vitality of enterprises. Under the basic good expectation, the liquidity of A-Shares is also facing a gentle process. In addition, the two sessions are expected to continue the positive "steady growth" measures, which will further contribute to the continuation of the rebound in March. While remaining optimistic about the market, we should be more cautious. At present, external risks such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the Fed's interest rate hike have not been completely eliminated, and these external uncertainties may still affect the development process of the market.
Industry configuration: the policy tone of "steady growth" has not changed at this stage. Under the triple pressure, during the two sessions, the management may deploy new infrastructure fields around "steady growth". We can pay attention to (1) UPS system and refrigeration sub fields that meet the goal of "double carbon" under the project of "counting from the east to the west"; (2) The capital expenditure of operators will gradually enter the decline stage. 5g operators whose base station project has entered the payback period and whose profitability is expected to improve can be concerned; (3) As the cleanest of all energy sources, hydrogen energy is being strongly supported by policies. Its supporting facilities (hydrogen transmission pipeline and hydrogenation station) are also expected to become one of the important starting points of new infrastructure.
Risk tip: Overseas local conflicts ferment more than expected, overseas liquidity tightens more than expected, and the promotion of steady growth policy is less than expected.
