Industry core view:
The disclosure of 2021 performance forecast is coming to an end. As of February 12, 426 A-share listed companies in Shenwan's eight major consumer industries have issued 2021 performance forecast, with an overall disclosure rate of 56%. The disclosed net profit totaled 21.103 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of - 83%. The performance differentiation among various industries is significant. According to the performance forecast released by the company, this paper makes a statistical comparison from the perspectives of performance profit and loss, year-on-year growth rate and changes in the year. It is found that the performance of household appliances, beauty care and textile manufacturing industries is more prominent.
Key investment points:
From the perspective of primary industries: in 2021, Meihu and home appliance profit-making companies led the whole industry, the performance of textile and clothing improved year-on-year, and turned losses into profits. Food and beverage grew steadily for two consecutive years, but the growth rate decreased. Although light industry manufacturing continued to make profits, the performance decreased for two consecutive years, social services lost money for two consecutive years, but the range decreased slightly, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery Commercial retail from profit to loss. The overall performance of household appliances is the best. The proportion of profitable companies in 2021 (78%) & the year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company (181%), the compound growth rate in the past two years (91%), the proportion of profitable companies in 2021q4 (68%) & the year-on-year growth rate (402%) are among the forefront of the industry, and the performance has increased steadily for two consecutive years. Beauty care has the best profitability. Although its number of companies and revenue scale are the smallest in all industries, it is the industry with the largest number of profitable companies (88%) in 2021. The high performance increase of leading enterprises with large revenue scale in the industry has driven the profit growth of the whole industry. The performance of textile and clothing has improved the best. In the past two years, the compound growth rate (130%) and the proportion of companies with high growth year-on-year (59%) are the first in all industries. Q1-q3 in 2021 and the whole year have turned losses into profits year-on-year. The performance of food and beverage is relatively stable. The number of profitable companies accounted for 73% in 2021, and the performance has increased positively year-on-year for two consecutive years. However, the performance in 2021 was 15% year-on-year, down from 20% in 2020. The number of profit-making companies of light industry manufacturing ranked third in 2021, accounting for 76%, but the performance increased negatively for two consecutive years, with a year-on-year performance of - 1% in 2021. The overall performance of social services, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, commerce and retail was the worst. The number of companies with performance losses in 2021 accounted for 57%, 53% and 33% respectively, and the year-on-year growth rate of performance was 6%, - 173% and - 981% respectively. Among them, social services suffered a significant loss in 2020, and the loss decreased slightly in 2021. The net profit of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and Commerce and retail changed from positive to negative in the past two years, and the performance decreased significantly.
From the perspective of secondary subdivided industries: textile manufacturing performance has led to the recovery of textile clothing, and home appliance parts have turned losses into profits, with a year-on-year increase of more than 6 times. First of all, in the household appliances industry, the segments represented by home appliance parts and black household appliances led the growth rate in all sub industries in 2021, and basically achieved the performance goal of turning losses into profits or profit growth within two years (except for white appliances, they still suffered losses). The second is the beauty care industry. More than half of the companies in its three sub industries have achieved positive profits in 2021q1-q3 and Q4, and the performance profit and loss stability during the year is strong. Among them, the profits of all companies issuing performance forecasts for personal care products are positive. The profits increased by more than 7 times in 2021, ranking first in all Shenwan secondary industries. Finally, there is textile clothing, in which textile manufacturing is the only industry that is making profits in the past two years, and the compound growth rate of performance in the past two years has doubled. The effect of jewelry loss reduction is remarkable. 80% of the companies have a year-on-year growth rate of more than 80% in 2021. However, in other consumer industries with poor overall performance, there are still some segments with outstanding performance in terms of performance growth, such as tourism retail and professional chain in commercial retail. Among them, there is only China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) one company in tourism retail, and the two-year compound growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent is as high as 45%; Among the 7 companies that have disclosed their performance, 6 professional chains are profitable. In 2021, they reversed the loss situation for two consecutive years, and the two-year compound growth rate ranked third (145%) among all sub industries. The overall trend of performance is good.
From the perspective of listed companies: 80% of the companies with the top market value have positive net profit, and the reasons for the high growth of enterprises in different industries are different. About 80% of the top companies in the market value of household appliances, textile and clothing and beauty care industries can make profits, but there is no positive relationship between the market value and the profit scale. In terms of performance growth types, the high performance growth of more than 80% of household appliances companies comes from the expansion of profits in 2021 compared with 2020, while nearly 50% of textile services companies' high performance growth comes from the improvement of losses in 2021 compared with 2020 (loss reduction or turnaround). The three sub industries of beauty care have the company's performance, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 20% in 2021 and a two-year compound growth rate of more than 20%. Among them, the target of the medical beauty sector is relatively scarce. As the leading stock of medical beauty Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , the scale effect has brought about the continuous improvement of profitability.
Investment suggestions: in 2022, with the steady growth policy and the weakening of the marginal impact of the epidemic, consumption is expected to enter the recovery channel. We should pay attention to the following industries: 1. Food and beverage: the necessity to raise the price will pass the cost, and the news of the high-end and second Baijiu price rises gradually. The future consumption blue chip valuation is expected to usher in further restoration. Second high-end Baijiu, condiment, leisure snacks, halogen products industry leader. ② Post real estate cycle: under the policy of steady growth, infrastructure and real estate are expected to develop. It is suggested to pay attention to the leaders of household appliances and home furnishings in the post real estate cycle. ③ Tourism: Based on our prediction that the impact of the epidemic will gradually weaken, the relevant industries most affected by the epidemic are expected to be repaired. It is suggested to pay attention to tax exemption, scenic spots and tourism industry leaders. ④ Pig breeding: the pig breeding industry may usher in an upward reversal of the cycle in the second half of the year. It is suggested to pay attention to the leaders of the pig breeding industry. ⑤ Beauty and jewelry medical beauty: in the beauty era, the beauty and jewelry medical beauty market is broad and the high scenery continues. It is suggested to pay attention to the leader of beauty and jewelry medical beauty.
Risk factors: the risk of repeated epidemic, the risk of less than expected policy strength, the risk of policy supervision, and the risk of less than expected consumption recovery.
