Strategy tracking: the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates is rising, and the technology sector is falling

Index tracking

[Shanghai and Shenzhen composite index] Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09% to close at 348111 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.09% to close at 1320182; The gem index fell 1.51% to close at 279195.

[industry tracking] industry: 15 industries rose and 15 industries fell. Among them, transportation, coal and real estate sectors led the increase, with increases of 3.07%, 2.52% and 1.53% respectively; Food and beverage, national defense and military industry, electronics and other sectors led the decline, with a decline of – 2.35%, – 2.14% and – 2.10%.

Comments

The transportation sector led the increase. The rise was mainly led by the shipping sector, which was recently affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine. Global shipping prices fluctuated sharply, among which the Sea crude oil freight rate index soared, up 110% from two weeks ago. In addition, the website of the Ministry of transport issued the notice of the Ministry of transport and the national development and Reform Commission on reducing and merging port charges and other related matters, which will be implemented from April 1, 2022 to reduce the logistics costs of cargo owner enterprises and shipping companies and promote the optimization of the business environment at the port. Under the catalysis of the news, the sector strengthened. In terms of individual stocks, Ningbo Marine Company Limited(600798) , China Master Logistics Co.Ltd(603967) , Ningbo Energy Group Co.Ltd(600982) and other individual stocks rose by the limit.

The coal sector increased significantly. At the news level, with the recent escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the continuous rise of crude oil and natural gas prices, coal prices have also gradually strengthened. In China, on March 2, the general office of the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice of the general office of the national development and Reform Commission on the supervision of medium and long-term coal contracts in 2022, which made deployment arrangements for further signing medium and long-term coal contracts and strengthening the supervision of contract performance. The profits of coal enterprises are expected to be more stable. In terms of individual stocks, Yunnan Coal & Energy Co.Ltd(600792) , Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) and Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) rose by 6.37%.

The Sino Russian trade concept sector strengthened. With the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Europe and the United States have successively increased sanctions against Russia and announced that they will cut off the connection between some Russian banks and the global interbank financial communication system. As of March 3, European and American countries have launched sanctions against Russian government officials, financial institutions, companies, airlines and media. Under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Sino Russian trade is expected to grow. In terms of individual stocks, Deshi shares, Orient Group Incorporation(600811) , Beijing Changjiu Logistics Corp(603569) and other individual stocks rose by the limit.

Outlook

Today, the index opened higher and weakened, traditional industries such as energy and infrastructure performed better, while science and technology sectors such as new energy and electronics fell significantly. On March 2, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell attended the Financial Services Committee of the house of Representatives and hinted that interest rates might be increased by 25 basis points in March, which led to a sharp rise in the 10-year US bonds that had previously fallen, while the valuation of the technology sector was suppressed to some extent. In terms of the market, as the “two sessions” are approaching, it is expected that the issue of people’s livelihood will be the focus of the two sessions, focusing on the related concepts of “people’s livelihood”, such as three children, rural revitalization, pension, etc.

Risk warning: the profit of the enterprise is less than expected; Increased volatility in overseas markets; Systemic risk

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