As we all know, new infrastructure includes seven major areas, namely 5g infrastructure, UHV, intercity high-speed railway and intercity rail transit, charging pile of new energy vehicles, big data center, artificial intelligence and industrial Internet.
When the traditional infrastructure has almost no space, the new infrastructure carries almost all the imagination space of infrastructure.
However, according to the current planning, the new infrastructure may have little pulling effect on infrastructure. It is estimated that the investment scale in the new infrastructure field this year is about 1.39 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 5.7%, and the pulling effect on the overall infrastructure is 0.4-0.5 percentage points.
Our specific calculation is as follows:
1) 5g infrastructure: according to the planning of the Ministry of industry and information technology, it is estimated that China will strive to reach about 3.7 million 5g base stations by the end of 2025. By the end of 2021, the number of base stations in China was about 1.43 million, with a gap of 2.27 million. According to the estimation of the average cost of each 5g base station of 400000 yuan, China's 5g construction can stimulate the investment of 908 billion yuan from 2022 to 2025; Assuming the same investment intensity every year, the investment will be about 230 billion yuan in 2022;
2) UHV: the approval of UHV projects in China will be accelerated in 2022, and all planned projects are expected to be approved. The scale of UHV construction in the next four years is unprecedented. According to the plans of the State Grid, China Southern Power Grid and some regional power grid companies, we estimate that the national UHV investment during the 14th Five Year Plan period is about 450 billion yuan, and about 112.5 billion yuan in 2022;
3) intercity high-speed railway and Intercity Rail Transit: the year-on-year growth peak of China's urban rail transit construction investment occurred in 2017, and then decreased year by year; The total investment in 2020 is estimated to be 62.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 62.5% in 2020; The investment in fixed assets of China's railways is stable. According to the production of new lines of China's high-speed railways and the rough estimation of the unit construction cost of high-speed railways, the investment in intercity high-speed railways is expected to be about 200 billion yuan in 2022;
4) charging piles for new energy vehicles: in 2021, the increment of charging infrastructure in China reached 936000, including 340000 public charging piles and 597000 charging piles built with vehicles; China charging alliance predicts that 543000 public charging piles will be added in 2022, and 1.9 million charging piles will be built with the vehicle. Therefore, it is estimated that the investment scale in the field of charging piles of new energy vehicles will be about 27.6 billion yuan in 2022;
5) Artificial Intelligence: if the growth of the artificial intelligence industry is relatively stable, it is expected that the industrial income scale will increase by about 25% year-on-year in 2022, and the corresponding scale will be 254.4 billion yuan. According to the proportion of industrial capital expenditure in operating income of about 8%, the investment in the field of artificial intelligence in 2022 will be about 20.4 billion yuan;
6) big data center: the scale of China's IDC business market has maintained stable growth driven by growing customer demand. It is estimated that the market scale of IDC business in China will be about 320 billion yuan in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 29%. Referring to the proportion of capital expenditure of Listed Companies in the industry in revenue, the investment scale of IDC business is expected to be about 26 billion yuan in 2022;
7) industrial Internet: if the scale of industrial Internet industry grows steadily, its industrial scale will exceed 1110 billion yuan in 2022, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 10%; According to the average capital expenditure accounting for 8% of operating revenue, the investment scale of industrial Internet is expected to be about 89 billion yuan in 2022;
In all directions of the new infrastructure, charging piles, big data, UHV and AI may grow by more than 25%. Unfortunately, although these directions grow rapidly, they account for a low proportion of the new infrastructure and have a limited pulling effect on the whole of the new infrastructure.
From this point of view, we can rest assured about infrastructure, but we may not be able to give high hopes to infrastructure. After all, the sector in the field of real decent growth in infrastructure is too small, which is consistent with the Enlightenment of PPP project to infrastructure.
This year's investment in new infrastructure may have greater significance than alpha. In various fields, if sorted by growth rate, the order from high to low is: new energy vehicle charging pile, big data center, artificial intelligence, UHV, industrial Internet, intercity high-speed rail and intercity rail transit, 5g infrastructure.
Risk tip: monetary policy exceeded expectations and economic recovery exceeded expectations.
