Macro strategy Daily: Xi Jinping met with Lin Zheng Yuee and he Yicheng who came to Beijing to report on their work

Key investment points:

Xi Jinping met with Lin Zheng Yuee and he Yicheng who came to Beijing to report on their work

On December 22, the president Xi Jinping met in Zhongnanhai with the chief executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Mrs Carrie Lam, who came to Beijing to report on her work. Xi Jinping stressed that this year marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China. The Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee made a resolution on the major achievements and historical experience of the party's Centennial struggle, in which "one country, two systems" was written as an important content.

On the whole, the extraordinary course of Hong Kong's return to the motherland for more than 20 years has fully proved that the implementation of "one country, two systems" is conducive to safeguarding the fundamental interests of the country, Hong Kong and Hong Kong compatriots. The Central Committee will continue to unswervingly implement the principle of "one country, two systems". With the deepening of practice and the continuous improvement of the system, the superiority of "one country, two systems" will be further demonstrated. The vast number of Hong Kong compatriots will certainly carry forward the glorious tradition of patriotism and love for Hong Kong, work hand in hand with the people of all ethnic groups across the country, and work together to achieve the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

The final value of US GDP in the third quarter was 2.3%, lower than expected

On December 22, the United States released the GDP data for the third quarter, with a final value of 2.3% month on month (MOM) at an annual rate. Although it was slightly higher than the initial value of 2.1%, it was still lower than expected as a whole, significantly lower than the second quarter data of 6.7%, which was also the lowest value since the sharp drop of 31.2% in the second quarter of 2020. Partly due to the relatively high base of Q3 GDP in 2021 and the corresponding ring on ring annual rate of 33.80%.

In terms of sub items, the month on month pull rate of private investment changed from negative to positive, recording 1.94%, rising 2.6 percentage points month on month, making the greatest contribution to the annual rate of GDP. Although the pull rate of personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for nearly 70% of US GDP, is still positive, its contribution is significantly weaker than that in the second quarter. Net exports of goods and services remained a drag, and residential fixed investment and federal government spending also put pressure on the economy.

Overall, Some factors supporting the U.S. economic recovery in the first and second quarters (active fiscal policy, popularization of vaccines and promotion of enterprises' resumption of work) support weakened in the third quarter. In addition, the slowdown of U.S. GDP growth in the third quarter may be due to 1) the repeated epidemic, the lack of raw materials and the sluggish supply chain caused by blocked transportation. 2) the overall employment market is not as expected, and the salary level is rising sharply, but the labor participation rate is still below 62%. Considering the base effect GDP is expected to rebound slightly in the fourth quarter. In addition, a number of Listed Companies in the United States mentioned supply chain issues in the third quarterly report, but they also said that customers were willing to pay higher prices, which further pushed up inflation. At present, inflation is close to the highest level in 30 years. It is expected that inflation may be difficult to maintain a high level next year. In the case of weakening inflationary pressure, the Fed's policy may be less hawkish than expected.

The financing balance decreased. On December 21, the balance of A-share financing was 1722.10 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 1.828 billion yuan; The balance of margin trading was 1837.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 774 million yuan month on month. The balance of financing minus securities lending was 1606.82 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 2.882 billion yuan.

Net sales of northbound funds. On December 22, the net purchase turnover of land stock connect on that day was -1.745 billion yuan, including 46.273 billion yuan of purchase turnover and 48.018 billion yuan of sales turnover, with a cumulative net purchase turnover of 1617.417 billion yuan. Hong Kong stock connect had a net purchase transaction of HK $3.046 billion on the same day, including a purchase transaction of HK $13.134 billion and a sale transaction of HK $10.088 billion, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of HK $2183.319 billion.

Money market interest rates fell. On December 22, Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) inter-bank offered rate Shibor overnight interest rate was 1.6870%, down 17.10bp, Shibor one week was 2.0120%, down 7.50bp. The weighted interest rate of pledged repo of depository institutions was 1.6651% overnight, down 17.10bp and 1.9617% a week, down 8.32bp. The 10-year maturity yield of China national debt was 2.8303%, down 2.05bp.

All three major U.S. stocks closed higher, while European stock markets generally rose. On December 22, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 35753.89 points, up 0.74%; The S & P 500 index closed at 4696.56 points, up 1.02%; The NASDAQ index closed at 15521.89, up 1.18%. European stock markets, French CAC index closed at 7051.67 points, up 1.24%; Germany DAX index closed at 15593.47 points, up 0.95%; The FTSE 100 index closed at 7341.66, up 0.61%. In the Asia Pacific market, the Nikkei index closed at 28562.21 points, up 0.16%; The Hang Seng Index closed at 23102.33, up 0.57%.

The dollar index fell. On December 22, the dollar index fell 0.37% to 96.1010. The euro rose 0.36% against the dollar to 1.1327. The dollar rose 0.02% against the yen to 114.1100. Sterling rose 0.62% against the dollar to 1.3352. The spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3721, depreciating by 0.02%. The spot exchange rate of offshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3764, depreciating by 0.00%. The central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3703, up 0.04%.

Gold rose and crude oil rose. On December 22, Comex gold futures rose 0.84% to close at US $1804.70 / ounce. WTI crude oil futures rose 2.47% to close at US $73.03/barrel. Brent crude oil futures rose 2.22% to close at US $75.65/barrel. COMEX copper futures rose 0.90% to close at US $4.3885/lb. LME copper three-month futures rose 0.91% to close at US $9642 / ton.

 

- Advertisment -