This paper discusses two aspects.
In terms of real estate, we believe that the proportion of China’s real estate market in the total economy has entered the process of long-term decline. Considering the penetration of urban housing and the new urban population, the historical top of commercial housing sales area may have appeared. Due to the influence of deleveraging and other policies, the current real estate industry has entered a period of drastic supply side adjustment, and the high turnover mode of the industry is coming to an end.
In terms of China’s economic transformation, we studied the structural changes of industrial enterprises and listed companies, and found that in the past decade, while the traditional manufacturing industry declined, new service industry and high-end manufacturing industry were rising.
In the emerging high-end manufacturing industry, the prominent feature is that Chinese enterprises are overtaking at corners in the fields of rapid technological change, such as computer communication equipment, new energy and new energy vehicles; However, in the mature manufacturing industry, the effect of our climbing up from the middle and low end of the value chain is not satisfactory.
In the capital market, in the long run, these emerging industries generally bring positive returns to investors, while the long-term returns of declining industries are negative.
Risk tips: (1) epidemic development exceeds expectations; (2) geopolitical risk
