With the acceleration of global carbon neutralization, we are in the midst of a global energy revolution. In June 2014, the general secretary proposed that in the face of new changes in the pattern of energy supply and demand and new trends in international energy development, we must promote the revolution of energy production and consumption to ensure national energy security; This year’s central economic work conference once again mentioned the need to further promote the energy revolution and accelerate the construction of an energy power. So what is the meaning behind the strategic statements of the European Union, the United States and China in this revolution? What are the areas where countries around the world will compete for interests in the future? This report is interpreted from three perspectives: politics, economy and energy.
1. The essence of climate issue is a global political and economic game:
The formulation and formation of global climate strategy should start with and analyze the international interactive relationship. From the perspective of game theory, the global climate change problem is not a “prisoner’s dilemma”, but a “smart pig game”. In this game, in order to achieve the best, the party occupying more resources (big pig) often needs to bear more obligations.
Reviewing the negotiations of previous climate conferences, the EU is undoubtedly the “big pig” in this “smart pig game”. Although Europe is indeed more threatened by climate change, we believe that after the oil crisis, Europe pays more and more attention to energy security, tries to reshape its global leadership through the low-carbon revolution, and paying attention to climate is “politically correct” in Europe, which is more likely to lead to the positive performance of the European Union on global climate issues.
Different from Europe, why is the United States half hearted on climate issues? First, successive U.S. presidents have made different statements on climate issues, the core of which is the difference between the interest groups represented by the Republican Party and the Democratic Party; Second, in the same oil crisis, the United States has successfully achieved energy independence through rapid technological breakthrough in shale oil development.
2. Why is China running into the low-carbon strategy
In recent years, China has made rapid progress in its low-carbon strategy. In terms of the number of years to achieve “carbon neutralization”, China’s reservation time is shorter than that of developed countries, and in terms of the process of emission reduction, China faces greater pressure to achieve carbon neutralization.
First, China’s carbon emission ranks first in the world, and emission reduction has become the global focus. China needs to shape its international image and enhance its influence; China’s energy structure relies more on coal, reducing coal use has become a global consensus, and energy transformation is imminent.
Second, technology reengineering driven by energy transformation is an important regulatory variable for China’s stable economic growth in the future. Investment in technological transformation brought about by energy transformation is also the key to stabilizing the proportion of added value of China’s manufacturing industry in the future.
Third, climate issues promote a new round of global strategic cooperation and consensus. China urgently needs to enhance its voice on global climate issues; China and the United States have extensive space for cooperation in the field of climate, which may become the starting point for China US dialogue in the future.
3. Climate issues are driving a global energy revolution:
We believe that the promotion of global climate issues is a global energy revolution. This revolution involves two core issues: one is when traditional fossil energy will be eliminated; Second, how to compete for the leading position under the new energy economy.
Under the setting of carbon neutrality, the phasing out of fossil energy is the only way. Previous climate conferences have made slow progress in this field. At present, reducing coal use has become a global consensus, while consumption reduction in the field of oil and natural gas has stagnated. At present, there are still great disputes about the distribution of carbon emission rights and interests all over the world. Due to the different degree of industrialization in different countries, the carbon emission demand is different, and the principle of carbon emission equity distribution only considers the present, not the history.
Under the new round of energy revolution, the interests of all countries in the world may focus on the following three areas:
Competition for key minerals. New energy makes some key minerals such as lithium, cobalt, manganese and rare earth prominent.
Competition for key technologies. Clean energy technologies in energy storage, hydrogen production and carbon capture are the focus of future investment.
Competition for key talents. Employment in the field of clean energy will become an important growth point in the future labor market.
