Main points:
Since 2021, benefiting from the continuous recovery of China’s macro economy, the operation of industrial issuers has improved accordingly. However, since the second quarter, the economic recovery trend has weakened, and there has been an obvious lack of recovery on the supply and demand sides. The micro subjects are facing the dual pressure of market demand and cost. In this context, the profit growth of industrial issuers further slowed down in the third quarter, and the repair of business cash acquisition ability was less than that in the early stage. Superimposed on the structural tightening of financing environment and the slight increase of short-term debt pressure, the short-term debt repayment index of industrial issuers has not been significantly improved.
Overall financial performance of industrial bond issuers
Profitability: the profitability shows a repair trend, but the repair degree slows down; The trend of profitability restoration and differentiation is further revealed, and the profitability of tail issuers is still under pressure.
Debt capital structure: the overall leverage level is stable, and the distribution of asset liability ratio is concentrated to the medium leverage level. The growth rate of the total scale of short-term debt increased slightly, and the debt structure of the issuer was weakened.
Liquidity level: the cash flow from operating activities continues to repair, but the degree of repair is less than that in the early stage; The overall performance of cash flow from financing activities is average.
Short term solvency: under the background that the improvement of cash acquisition ability is less than that in the early stage and the scale of short-term debt has increased, the short-term debt repayment index has not been significantly improved, and the pressure of short-term debt repayment of tail enterprises still exists.
Financial performance of bond issuers in major industries
Cyclical industries: the overall business situation of enterprises continues to pick up, the profitability of coal, steel and non-ferrous metals industries has been repaired to varying degrees, and the cash flow from operating activities is also in a net inflow state. However, the cash flow performance of financing activities is differentiated, the external financing of coal industry is significantly improved, the repair of non-ferrous metal financing cash flow is less than that in the early stage, and the cash flow of financing activities in iron and steel industry is weakened. In this context, although the scale of short-term debt in the coal industry continues to expand, the issuer’s monetary capital coverage of short-term debt in the industry has been improved with the support of strong cash acquisition capacity; The scale of short-term debt in the steel and non-ferrous metal industries showed a trend of reduction, and the issuer’s solvency was repaired.
Real estate industry: the profitability of issuers is divided, and the short-term debt repayment index is weakened due to the poor performance of cash flow from financing activities and the short-term debt structure under the background of tightening financing channels. Under the background that the maturity scale of the real estate industry in the next year is still large and risk events occur frequently, the refinancing risk of the industry deserves attention, especially the evolution of credit risk of real estate enterprises with poor sales, high liabilities and debt maturity structure to be optimized in the region is worth tracking and observing.
