Key investment points:
The volatility of European and American markets intensified, and the main stock indexes of A-Shares closed down collectively. This week, the Federal Reserve announced the last interest rate resolution of the year. The three major interest rates remain unchanged. It plans to accelerate taper from January next year and increase the monthly asset purchase scale from US $15 billion to US $30 billion. The dot matrix shows that two-thirds of officials expect to raise interest rates three times in 2022 and 60% expect to raise interest rates three times in 2023. The expectation of raising interest rates is heating up, and their attitude has obviously changed. The Bank of England then announced that it would raise interest rates by 15 basis points to raise the benchmark interest rate to 0.25%, and the European Central Bank announced that it would adjust its asset purchase plan. Affected by this, European and American stock markets collectively adjusted this week, and US stocks fell sharply. The main indexes of A-Shares fell collectively during the week, among which the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.93%, leading the rise of A-Shares to close at 3632.36 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.61%, the gem index fell 0.94%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 1.99%, and the Kechuang 50 fell 2.55%.
The Federal Reserve tightened liquidity, and there was a significant net inflow of funds to the north. The turnover of the two markets continued to exceed trillion yuan in five trading days this week. At present, A-Shares have exceeded trillion yuan for 41 consecutive trading days. The average daily turnover of Wande a was 1164630 billion yuan, a decrease of about 24.938 billion yuan compared with last week. Except for the gem, the turnover rate of major stock indexes decreased compared with last week. As of the end of this week, the balance of margin trading and securities lending was 1841.959 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 386 million yuan compared with the previous week, which has decreased for three consecutive weeks; During the week, the transaction volume of two financial institutions was 447.237 billion yuan, a slight decrease of about 12.5 billion yuan compared with last week; The trading volume of Liangrong accounted for 7.69% of the trading volume of a shares, a slight increase of 0.03 percentage points compared with last week. Compared with the previous week, the net inflow of northward capital this week was RMB 11.467 billion, exceeding RMB 10 billion for three consecutive weeks, with a cumulative net inflow of RMB 1621.13 billion; The total trading volume of northbound funds during the week was 578.685 billion yuan, down more than 60 billion yuan from last week.
Investment suggestions: on December 17, the CSRC publicly solicited opinions on Amending the provisions on the trading interconnection mechanism between the mainland and Hong Kong stock markets. This amendment intends to restrict mainland investors from participating in land stock connect trading. “Fake foreign capital” used Shanghai and Shenzhen shares to increase their holdings and transactions to the north, and carried out a high proportion of capital allocation. At the same time, it violated the original intention of the policy by building cross-border positions and manipulating A-share transactions to achieve regulatory arbitrage, which prompted the CSRC to crack down. However, according to the data disclosed by the CSRC, at present, the overall scale of “fake foreign capital” transactions is small, and the transaction amount accounts for a relatively low proportion in northbound transactions. It is expected that the new regulations will have a certain impact on market sentiment in the short term, but the tone of the long-term healthy and stable development of China’s stock market remains unchanged, and it is still the general trend for foreign capital to actively allocate a shares. In particular, at present, the risk of overseas stock markets is rising, and the expectation of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve is heating up frequently, so the A-share market has high attraction. In terms of industry allocation: 1) hot fields such as food and beverage, electronics and science and technology with relatively concentrated funds may meet short-term fluctuations and bargain hunting layout; 2) The interest rate cut was implemented, the liquidity situation was better, and attention was paid to the undervalued blue chip sectors such as non bank finance and banks; 3) The epidemic situation in China is distributed at many points, and attention is paid to the opportunities of the pharmaceutical sector.
Risk factors: the epidemic situation is repeated, the macro-economy is lower than expected, and the inflation is higher than expected.
