Energy consumption is the driving force of economic development, and carbon emission right means the right to development
From a historical perspective, developed economies that have crossed the stage of medium and high-speed economic growth have contributed higher carbon emissions in history. Britain in the gas age and the United States in the oil and gas age both reflect the historical law of energy and economic growth. The countries leading the energy revolution will become the most economically dynamic economies. Behind this round of energy revolution is the competition for the vitality of future economic development of various countries.
The initial stage of rapid development of developing economies is often dominated by high energy consumption, high emission and resource-based industries. The developing economic growth rate is “highly consistent” with the change trend of energy consumption and carbon emission share. The restriction on carbon emission right under the path of global carbon emission reduction in the future means the loss of the right to development to a certain extent. At present, China is in the development stage of medium and high growth. Taking the initiative to participate in the global carbon neutralization camp means that China has undertaken more historical responsibilities for carbon emission reduction.
Catch up economies face the bottleneck of demographic dividend fading and need to switch to energy revolution
China’s rise in the past 40 years is more about giving full play to its advantages such as human cost under the existing traditional energy framework, undertaking the manufacturing transfer of developed countries and realizing the rapid growth of export-oriented economy. The essence of this path of development is to make full use of the demographic dividend – a generation of labor force with low cost, large number and hard-working. Therefore, it is limited by the “ceiling” of demographic dividend and technological iteration. China’s current development achievements are likely to approach the limit under the existing energy framework.
Under the framework of the energy revolution, the leading country of the energy revolution will become the most economically dynamic economy in the medium and long term. If China wants to make further progress in the competition among big countries and achieve sustainable and high-quality development for a longer time. There is an urgent need for China to switch the current development framework of “post-war catch-up” economy relying on demographic dividend to the development framework of “driven by energy revolution” relied on by the rise of developed countries such as Britain and the United States in the 19th-20th century. The current “green and low-carbon” revolution is the biggest opportunity for China’s manufacturing industry, the overall economy and even comprehensive national strength to break the situation. More importantly, China actually has the potential to lead the global energy revolution similar to that of Britain, the United States and Germany.
The manufacturing industry is large but not strong, and the upgrading of manufacturing industry in the post epidemic era is weak
From the perspective of the division of labor in the global industrial chain, although China is a large manufacturing country, it is still not a strong manufacturing country, or has just entered the stage of scientific and technological innovation driven development. In terms of the overall technical level and position in the global industrial chain, “made in China” is still at the global medium level, and the manufacturing skills and R & D technology level of medium and high-end products are insufficient. Especially in high-end industries and core technology fields, the path of domestic substitution is still very long.
In the post epidemic era of 2021, China’s export scale continues to increase, but the real profit of enterprises is not as fast as the revenue scale. First, the export boom is driven by European and American countries; Second, subject to the energy crisis, the price of raw materials rose sharply; Third, under the epidemic situation, the problem of difficult and expensive employment in China has become more prominent; Fourth, the pressure of foreign exchange settlement caused by the large-scale over issuance of US dollars.
Multiplier effect of “cross cycle regulation”: double carbon is the most definite direction of wide credit
In the medium term, the impact of the real estate downturn on the overall economy will be the most important challenge for the economy next year. The Politburo meeting and the central economic work conference in December defined the tone of stability. In terms of monetary policy, we should not only see that the overall monetary policy will remain loose next year, and the total reserve requirement reduction or even interest rate reduction can be expected, but also see the special structure of monetary policy. “Green low-carbon” is getting support like refinancing of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises after the epidemic, and has become the most important direction of the central bank’s structural wide credit. Since the water flows here, the valuation and prosperity of this field are expected to remain high. In terms of fiscal policy, the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) industry currently has global competitiveness, mature industrial chain, wide radiation range, and is in line with the direction of new infrastructure to stimulate the economy. Therefore, it is expected to be the most important direction of fiscal development.
Investment advice
In terms of A-share market investment, the game of phased market under the replacement of old and new energy is more complex. We believe that the prosperity of the new energy industry chain may continue to remain high in the industrial reform driven by the goal of “carbon neutralization” from the perspective of the long-term transformation of the energy revolution.
Under the expectation of fiscal policy, the stimulus space for infrastructure investment is opened. Appropriate and advanced infrastructure investment is a specific measure, among which: 1) energy storage plays an irreplaceable role in cutting peak and filling valley in the process of grid connection of new energy power generation and reducing grid fluctuation; 2) The green power sector undertakes the operation and transformation of new energy power grid for clean energy power conversion; 3) New materials under the construction demand of new energy related infrastructure may be the real policy starting point and market main line.
Risk tip: the promotion of “double carbon” related policies is not as expected, the risk of policy uncertainty in the new energy industry, the risk of change in the route of green and low-carbon technology, and the construction and development of China’s carbon trading market are lower than expected.
