Macro categories:
This week, the temperature in many European countries will fall below zero. The shortage of natural gas, the weakening of wind power and the interruption of nuclear power will push the European electricity price to an all-time high. The interruption of the operation of four nuclear reactors in France will lead to the loss of power output of about 1 TWH by the end of the year. Germany will also shut down nearly 50% of its nuclear power supply by the end of the year, and the wind power output will also fall to a low of 2277 MW due to the weakening of the wind. In addition, there was no sign of an increase in Russia’s natural gas supply to Europe over the weekend, and Europe’s dependence on natural gas further increased. The short-term European energy crisis ferments again, which may bring a new round of rising support to coal and oil. However, it should also be pointed out that at present, China’s energy reserves are relatively sufficient and it is not expected to repeat the mistakes.
Recently, China’s foreign policy and economy have shown signs of differentiation. Overseas, the Federal Reserve announced last week to speed up and reduce bond purchases; The European Central Bank will also gradually reduce the scale of bond purchase in 2022. Moreover, the recent continuous deterioration of overseas epidemic situation has been reflected in the level of economic data again. The high-frequency travel and dining data have decreased significantly, which has led to the strengthened anti epidemic blockade policies of Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and other countries. In China, the policy warm wind blows frequently, but at the economic level, the data in November show that China’s pressure situation remains unchanged. The subsequent export dragged down by the high base and the downward pressure on real estate transmitted from land acquisition to construction in the early stage will drag down the overall economy. At present, we have not seen the confirmation signal that the “policy bottom” drives the “economic bottom”.
Generally speaking, under the background of monetary marginal loosening, we are relatively friendly to China’s stock index. We continue to be optimistic about China’s stock index from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year; The recent trend of commodities is not clear, and the demand side of domestic industrial products such as real estate and infrastructure has not been significantly improved. On the one hand, crude oil for foreign industrial products is facing the pressure of 50 million barrels of American oil dumping and storage recently, as well as the demand pressure of repeated overseas epidemics. On the other hand, the electricity price in Europe has continued to rise recently, which is expected to provide some support for the reduction of production at the supply end of foreign demand industrial products.
Strategy (order of strength): the three major stock indexes (IH / if / IC) are bargain hunting and multi matching; commodities are neutral, of which Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) can still bargain hunting and multi matching; treasury bonds are neutral;
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; Deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait.
