As an important variable affecting the economy, real estate is one of the focus of recent market discussion. Looking at real estate from the perspective of debt may help to better understand the "Crux" of real estate at present and deduce the future trend. This paper is for reference.
Question 1: what is the current real estate debt risk status? Frequent defaults of real estate enterprises and rising "spiral" contraction pressure of financing
The scale of bond default of real estate enterprises reached a new high, and most private enterprises defaulted, even including some "green" real estate enterprises. Bond defaults of real estate enterprises have increased significantly since the second half of 2020, reaching 32 billion yuan in the first October of 2021, a new high in recent years. Considering the offshore market, the scale of default debt is larger; In addition to public bonds, bank loans, trusts and other defaults have also increased. Most of the real estate enterprises with high risk of first default or debt default are private enterprises, mostly "red" real estate enterprises with deteriorating net debt ratio and cash short debt ratio, and some are real estate enterprises with "green" debt on the balance sheet.
With the fermentation of debt default risk, cautious bank lending and declining willingness of institutions to subscribe for bonds have increased the "spiral" contraction pressure on the debt of real estate enterprises. Under the fermentation of debt default risk, bank lending and institutional investment in real estate bonds were more cautious. The financing of real estate bonds once contracted by more than 50 billion yuan in a single quarter, and the cost rose rapidly, resulting in tight refinancing cash flow of real estate enterprises and further increase of default risk. Recently, the margin of financing such as real estate bonds has improved, but the phenomenon of credit stratification is prominent. For real estate enterprises with high debt pressure, the improvement of refinancing cash flow is limited.
Second question: the "Crux" of real estate debt risk? Capital fracture is the appearance, and the rapid expansion of leverage is the root
Under the regulation of real estate, the contraction of real estate sales collection and refinancing may only be the "catalyst" for the release of debt risk of real estate enterprises. Since the second half of 2020, most of the real estate enterprises that have defaulted on their debts have experienced the deterioration of both operating cash flow and financing cash flow, which is closely related to the decline of payment collection cash flow caused by the accelerated decline of real estate sales under the strengthened financing supervision of real estate enterprises, and the increase of refinancing pressure caused by default concerns; Tightening the supervision of commercial housing budget funds and measures to protect the rights and interests of creditors have further increased the difficulty of the operation of real estate enterprise funds.
Over the past few years, the rapid expansion of leverage and the decline of cash flow stability are the root causes of debt default of real estate enterprises. At present, most real estate enterprises with default risk expanded their business scale and debt rapidly in the last round of real estate cycle, and the net debt ratio basically doubled from 2015 to 2017; At the same time, cash flow management did not keep up, non-standard and other high-cost financing increased, capital utilization efficiency was not high, and land and project reserves with low liquidity increased, which jointly led to the decline of cash flow stability. Blind diversified expansion of some real estate enterprises has also dragged down the cash flow of the main industry.
Third question: the Enlightenment of real estate from the perspective of debt? Investment may still face downward pressure, and the transformation of real estate enterprises is the general trend
Under the pressure of debt, the repair of real estate enterprise statements and land acquisition behavior may take time, or it means that real estate investment is still facing downward pressure. Under the "no speculation in housing and housing", some provinces and cities have relaxed the "pre adjustment and fine adjustment" of house purchase qualification and pre-sale conditions, as well as loan support for rigid and improved housing demand, which are conducive to alleviating the cash flow pressure of real estate enterprises; However, it will take time to repair the statements of real estate enterprises, residents' willingness to buy houses and the confidence of financial institutions. In addition, the debt due and payable in the first half of 2022 is relatively concentrated, which makes the land acquisition and investment of real estate enterprises still cautious in stages.
Under the change of real estate positioning, the real estate industry has bid farewell to the era of high growth, and the transformation of real estate enterprises is the general trend. Different from the traditional cycle, this round of real estate regulation pays more attention to the construction of "long-term mechanism", takes into account the overall social stability and economic transformation, and will not take the old road of real estate hedging the economic downturn. For the real estate industry, the traditional development model may be more difficult to sustain, the industry has just been cleared or has just begun, and the head effect of real estate enterprises may be more prominent; At the same time, some real estate enterprises can take advantage of their professional advantages in housing development and property management to turn to the joint development mode of housing with light debt.
Risk tip: accelerated exposure of debt risk and changes in policy regulation.
