Looking back on the A-share market last week, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets ushered in shock adjustment. Especially last Friday, the stock index fell into shock again, ushered in emotional repression in the short term, presented a pulse downward pattern, and was hit by a big Yin line. On the disk, the industry and concept sectors fell more or rose less, and individual stocks turned green in a large area.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , there are some obstacles to the market’s upward attack of 3700 points. The resistance mainly comes from the recent profit taking of funds in popular sectors and the large volatility of peripheral markets. market risk appetite has shown signs of decline. Towards the end of the year, some funds choose to leave the market for a wait-and-see . In terms of operation, investors can choose to close their positions at high prices, wait for the market to stabilize effectively, and then choose a new hot plate for operation and trading.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities said that last Friday, the market shock fell, the trend was slightly depressed, the individual stock sector generally rested, and the funds going north also ended the continuous net inflow trend and turned into net outflow, which suppressed the market, it is expected that the market will rest in the short term or shock, but it will not change the trend of rebound in the medium term, and pay attention to the rotation rhythm of the plate and the change of volume energy . In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, household appliances, building materials, electrical equipment, TMT and other industries.
For the future, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) pointed out that the cross year offensive has good sustainability. At present, the impact of the central economic work conference on the market is more focused on reducing uncertainty → driving the periodic decline of risk assessment, but the fundamental expectation has not changed significantly, and the economic data in November is still weak. In the future, this round of cross year offensive will be further deduced with the gradual development of stable growth policy and the continuous verification of economic / financial data. At the same time, there is still room for imagination in the loose expectation at the denominator. on the whole, this round of cross year offensive is expected to continue to from January to February 2022.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) mentioned that looking forward to next year, there are three different judgments. judgment 1 : the market amplitude will increase, the market is expected to break through upward at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, and the annual yield is expected to be lowered. ② judgment 2 : we need to be vigilant against inflationary pressure. Next year, the economic growth of the United States and Europe will be high, the prices of internationally priced commodities will rise, and the pig cycle will drive the pig price to rise. ③ judgment 3 : next year, the market and value style are dominant. At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, finance, real estate, hard technology and consumption are allocated in a balanced manner, and then pay attention to the rising prices and consumer services with reversal of difficulties.
Macroscopically, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) believes that around the Spring Festival next year will be an important “watershed” . First of all, it is currently in a profit “vacuum period”, but the physical feeling of the first quarterly report next year is under great pressure; Secondly, the epidemic disturbs the global supply chain and repairs slowly, superimposing the “wage inflation” spiral in the United States. At that time, the decline rate of high inflation in the United States will probably be falsified; In the context of export resilience and no systematic credit risk in real estate, the strength of “stable growth” after the Spring Festival confirms that the probability is difficult to meet the expectations of optimistic investors.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) also pointed out that A-Shares in 2022 are the policy city . In terms of market rhythm, the market may show an “n” trend in 2022, that is, the market is relatively strong in the first and fourth quarters and relatively weak in the second and third quarters. Relatively speaking, A-Shares may perform better in the policy window period in the first quarter, and there is still great uncertainty whether the economy can stabilize and recover in the second and third quarters of next year. In addition, after the end of taper, the Federal Reserve has a high probability to increase interest rates and increase the volatility of global stock markets. In the fourth quarter, with the implementation of uncertain factors such as interest rate increase, equity assets may be repriced.
In terms of operation strategy, the agency further analyzed that growth stocks are dominant and small cap stocks are dominant . 1) Growth is better than value: the economy is in the bottom seeking stage, and the performance of value stocks may be more damaged than that of growth stocks in the economic downturn stage. In addition, in the economic downturn stage, monetary policy will not be tightened, and the capital interest rate may be in a downward trend, which is more beneficial to the valuation of long-term growth stocks whose profits are concentrated in the long term; 2) Small cap is better than the large cap: Although the current credit spread is at a historically low level, under the environment of wide currency and wide credit, the credit spread may continue the low downward trend, and small cap stocks may benefit more from the reduction of uncertain risk premium.
In addition, YueKai securities mentioned that “true” price investment is not afraid of “false” foreign capital exit, and the future market is balanced in three directions , including: first, pay attention to the investment opportunities in the pre hi sector of the annual report . At present, 88 enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen have disclosed the annual performance forecast, with a performance forecast rate of 82%, a total of 72 enterprises, including many enterprises in the pharmaceutical and biological, mechanical equipment and light industry manufacturing industries. The net profit of 43 enterprises increased by more than 20%, accounting for a large number of industries, including mechanical equipment, electronics, light industry manufacturing and electrical equipment. With the disclosure of annual report performance, investors’ attention to annual customs declaration will increase. It is suggested to pay attention to the high-quality target of high growth and low value in the annual report, especially the high-quality companies with continuous growth in performance in the past two years.
Second, focus on the high-quality large consumption leading company with alpha attribute. Recently, the funds going north continue to flow into the large consumer sector. We believe that with the opening of the tide of price increase in the consumer sector, enterprises with strong future pricing power and brand advantages are expected to benefit first. After the cost side pressure of leading companies is gradually relieved, they are expected to enjoy the dividend of raw material price decline + profit elasticity repair in the medium and long term. In 2022, Leading companies of consumer goods are expected to usher in a new era of valuation and profitability. It is suggested that high-quality large consumer leading companies focusing on alpha attribute.
Third, technology stocks have long-term investment opportunities . Technology stocks have a certain ability to cross the cycle. The hard science and technology industry, which has been supported by national policies for a long time, is less disturbed by macro-economy. Under the background of innovation cycle, domestic penetration improvement and industry talent return, the semiconductor sector is driven by the superposition of three factors: product iteration, category expansion and customer breakthrough. It is suggested to select the target from the perspectives of domestic substitution, industry cycle and market share improvement.
In terms of industry configuration, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) still adheres to three main investment lines: 1) growth sector , such as new energy (vehicles) (smart grid, energy storage, wind energy, photovoltaic, etc.) and electronic industry chain; 2) the “Spring Festival effect”, Baijiu with certain price expectations. 3) the “real estate” sector benefiting from the marginal change of the “policy for urban implementation” real estate policy focuses on central enterprises with increased market share. Theme investment focuses on “double carbon, military industry, consumption upgrading”, etc.
