Looking back on Monday's A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board. After the opening of the Shanghai index, it rose rapidly and continued to rise for a time. Unfortunately, the sustainability was poor. Then the Shanghai index gradually fell. With the decline of subject stocks, the gem index also suffered a heavy setback. The three major stock indexes continued to hit new lows in the day and continued the adjustment since last week.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , at present, the market continues to weaken under the dual influence of the selling pressure of profit-making funds in the early stage and the fluctuation of the peripheral market caused by the covid-19 variant. For the time being, there is no obvious signal of stabilization. In the early stage, the effect of the strategy of stopping profit at high prices is obvious. Operationally, investors can reduce their positions and gradually turn to the strategy of holding money and watching, Wait for the market to stabilize effectively before subsequent operations .
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities said that on Monday, the market fluctuated and corrected, the profit-making effect was biased, and the funds going north flowed out slightly, but the trading in the two cities remained active. The reduction of one-year LPR interest rate showed that the monetary policy was stable and loose. With the release of selling pressure and subsequent policy support, it is expected that the market is expected to gradually fluctuate and stabilize, and pay attention to the rotation rhythm of the plate and the change of volume energy. In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, building materials, household appliances, food and beverage, TMT and other industries.
YueKai Securities pointed out that since its operation in December, A-Shares have developed first and then declined, and the overall operation center and expectation have moved forward in fluctuation. For the future, we continue to be optimistic about the next year's market, but the interpretation of the market is not achieved overnight . At present, the interweaving of long and short factors in the market leads to a slight hesitation at the index level. The positive effect of the central bank's reduction of one-year LPR has been fully expected by the market. This reduction is slightly lower than market expectations, resulting in the correction of the index on Monday.
In terms of the future market, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) mentioned that growth adjustment did not hinder the positive allocation attitude, and the cross year industry continued to adhere to . The cross year market entered the key nodes and still maintained a relatively positive allocation attitude. First, although the Fed officially announced the acceleration of taper in the periphery, it does not have a direct impact on the more positive policies at the moment when the policy is "dominated by me". Second, the previous growth market has experienced the change of valuation → performance → valuation, and this round of growth market will also enter the final stage of valuation.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that the hawks of the Bank of England and the United States turned to superimpose the spread of mutant strains, and A-Shares fluctuated under the influence of overseas markets. However, China's epidemic prevention experience is more timely and effective. Therefore, the impact of the epidemic on China's economy is less than that of foreign countries. At the same time, monetary policy will still focus on China, and the steady growth policy in all aspects will continue to work. The short-term disturbance of A-Shares brings good opportunities, which will gradually stabilize after consolidation. Subsequent counter cyclical and cross cyclical policies are expected to improve economic expectations and boost market risk appetite. Maintain our long-standing bullish view on a shares, the structural market of A-Shares continues, and the plate / individual stocks do not catch up or fall .
Macroscopically, on December 20, the central bank lowered the one-year LPR interest rate 5bp to 3.8%, and the five-year LPR interest rate was 4.65%, unchanged. China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) pointed out that the interest rate cut has the following points: choosing to cut the interest rate before the year can reduce the financing cost of enterprises faster than after the year; Only reduce the one-year LPR interest rate, reflecting the policy orientation of "housing, housing and speculation"; The MLF interest rate may be lowered, and it may be in the window period in the first quarter of 2022. Impact on the capital market: Although the recent performance of the stock market is affected by the long-term and short-term logical game, in the future, the policies related to "stable growth" may delay the downward speed of the economy, the probability of monetary policy remains loose, and the stock market still has structural opportunities .
In terms of operation strategy, Bohai Securities believes that spring agitation is still expected, and "squatting" energy storage is expected to take off better . In the short term, we can pay attention to the driving of low weight plates to the index clearance; In the medium and long term, based on the whole year of next year, it can be configured along the two main lines of trend continuation and dilemma reversal.
Specifically, we can pay attention to: (1) the "fengfengchu" plate benefiting from the downward trend of PPI under the background of the continuous promotion of the global energy revolution; (2) The strategic position of the science and technology sector is superimposed on "new infrastructure", semiconductor, media and other science and technology sectors with high safety margin ; (3) The consumer sector is expected to benefit from the continuous inflow of foreign capital next year; (4) The production capacity continues to be cleared, and the breeding plate at the inflection point of the game can be arranged on bargain hunting.
Ping An Securities said that the rotation of short-term sector may continue, and the main line of the market is still unclear. Under this background, the boom sector with upward medium and long-term industrial trend deserves more attention . There are two reasons: first, with the increasing attention paid by the regulatory authorities to the stock price fluctuation of small market capitalization companies, some follow-up funds may return to the high boom track; Second, in the context of long-term economic transformation, the steady growth policy will pay more attention to structural regulation, the policy dividend will be inclined to small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development, and the transformation sectors such as high-end manufacturing, digital economy and carbon neutrality will benefit more.
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Looking back on Monday's A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board. After the opening of the Shanghai index, it rose rapidly and continued to rise for a time. Unfortunately, the sustainability was poor. Then the Shanghai index gradually fell. With the decline of subject stocks, the gem index also suffered a heavy setback. The three major stock indexes continued to hit new lows in the day and continued the adjustment since last week.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , at present, the market continues to weaken under the dual influence of the selling pressure of profit-making funds in the early stage and the fluctuation of the peripheral market caused by the covid-19 variant. For the time being, there is no obvious signal of stabilization. In the early stage, the effect of the strategy of stopping profit at high prices is obvious. Operationally, investors can reduce their positions and gradually turn to the strategy of holding money and watching, Wait for the market to stabilize effectively before subsequent operations .
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities said that on Monday, the market fluctuated and corrected, the profit-making effect was biased, and the funds going north flowed out slightly, but the trading in the two cities remained active. The reduction of one-year LPR interest rate showed that the monetary policy was stable and loose. With the release of selling pressure and subsequent policy support, it is expected that the market is expected to gradually fluctuate and stabilize, and pay attention to the rotation rhythm of the plate and the change of volume energy. In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, building materials, household appliances, food and beverage, TMT and other industries.
YueKai Securities pointed out that since its operation in December, A-Shares have developed first and then declined, and the overall operation center and expectation have moved forward in fluctuation. For the future, we continue to be optimistic about the next year's market, but the interpretation of the market is not achieved overnight . At present, the interweaving of long and short factors in the market leads to a slight hesitation at the index level. The positive effect of the central bank's reduction of one-year LPR has been fully expected by the market. This reduction is slightly lower than market expectations, resulting in the correction of the index on Monday.
In terms of the future market, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) mentioned that growth adjustment did not hinder the positive allocation attitude, and the cross year industry continued to adhere to . The cross year market entered the key nodes and still maintained a relatively positive allocation attitude. First, although the Fed officially announced the acceleration of taper in the periphery, it does not have a direct impact on the more positive policies at the moment when the policy is "dominated by me". Second, the previous growth market has experienced the change of valuation → performance → valuation, and this round of growth market will also enter the final stage of valuation.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that the hawks of the Bank of England and the United States turned to superimpose the spread of mutant strains, and A-Shares fluctuated under the influence of overseas markets. However, China's epidemic prevention experience is more timely and effective. Therefore, the impact of the epidemic on China's economy is less than that of foreign countries. At the same time, monetary policy will still focus on China, and the steady growth policy in all aspects will continue to work. The short-term disturbance of A-Shares brings good opportunities, which will gradually stabilize after consolidation. Subsequent counter cyclical and cross cyclical policies are expected to improve economic expectations and boost market risk appetite. Maintain our long-standing bullish view on a shares, the structural market of A-Shares continues, and the plate / individual stocks do not catch up or fall .
Macroscopically, on December 20, the central bank lowered the one-year LPR interest rate 5bp to 3.8%, and the five-year LPR interest rate was 4.65%, unchanged. China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) pointed out that the interest rate cut has the following points: choosing to cut the interest rate before the year can reduce the financing cost of enterprises faster than after the year; Only reduce the one-year LPR interest rate, reflecting the policy orientation of "housing, housing and speculation"; The MLF interest rate may be lowered, and it may be in the window period in the first quarter of 2022. Impact on the capital market: Although the recent performance of the stock market is affected by the long-term and short-term logical game, in the future, the policies related to "stable growth" may delay the downward speed of the economy, the probability of monetary policy remains loose, and the stock market still has structural opportunities .
In terms of operation strategy, Bohai Securities believes that spring agitation is still expected, and "squatting" energy storage is expected to take off better . In the short term, we can pay attention to the driving of low weight plates to the index clearance; In the medium and long term, based on the whole year of next year, it can be configured along the two main lines of trend continuation and dilemma reversal.
Specifically, we can pay attention to: (1) the "fengfengchu" plate benefiting from the downward trend of PPI under the background of the continuous promotion of the global energy revolution; (2) The strategic position of the science and technology sector is superimposed on "new infrastructure", semiconductor, media and other science and technology sectors with high safety margin ; (3) The consumer sector is expected to benefit from the continuous inflow of foreign capital next year; (4) The production capacity continues to be cleared, and the breeding plate at the inflection point of the game can be arranged on bargain hunting.
Ping An Securities said that the rotation of short-term sector may continue, and the main line of the market is still unclear. Under this background, the boom sector with upward medium and long-term industrial trend deserves more attention . There are two reasons: first, with the increasing attention paid by the regulatory authorities to the stock price fluctuation of small market capitalization companies, some follow-up funds may return to the high boom track; Second, in the context of long-term economic transformation, the steady growth policy will pay more attention to structural regulation, the policy dividend will be inclined to small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development, and the transformation sectors such as high-end manufacturing, digital economy and carbon neutrality will benefit more.
