Zhou viewpoint
The Russian Ukrainian crisis escalated again, the risk aversion soared, and the turmoil in the global financial market intensified; Ukraine refused the peace talks, the Russian army continued to act, US and European sanctions continued to increase, and the power of financial nuclear bomb swift began to appear; The tense situation in Russia and Ukraine has a prominent impact on the economy of Russia, Ukraine and Europe, increasing the uncertainty of European economic recovery; It also has an impact on global energy, metals and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply. The pressure of commodity price rise is prominent, which makes the originally high overseas inflation more variable, and the Federal Reserve is difficult to ride a tiger.
The resumption of geopolitical conflict events since 2000, usually before the conflict, the stock market operated relatively. After the conflict broke out, the risk aversion increased, the risk appetite decreased, and the impact on the stock market was more obvious. From the perspective of sustainability, the impact is mostly within one month, and in the medium term (about three months), it will often be significantly repaired and return to fundamentals; The rise of gold and the US dollar will generally respond in advance before the outbreak of the event. After the outbreak of the event, there is only a short-term impact and the sustainability is not strong; Every time the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalates, it will significantly push up oil and gas prices, and this time is no exception.
Although there is still great uncertainty in the external conflict between Russia and Ukraine, European and American countries have made it clear that they will not take the initiative to participate in the war, and the risk is relatively controllable, which can be regarded as marginal mitigation; The internal two sessions will be held soon, and the measures to stabilize growth will be further refined to meet the favorable policies. Therefore, there is no need to be too pessimistic about the current A shares.
It is suggested that the steady growth of undervalued value and the balanced allocation of high prosperity hard science and technology at both ends: after the Fed's interest rate hike weakened in March, China still has the expectation of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates, the risk appetite will pick up, and the growth direction of science and technology adjusted more in the early stage has the opportunity to rebound; At the same time, the two sessions are approaching, and the steady growth policy continues to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to large infrastructure, large real estate and large finance that benefit from steady growth and wide credit.
Risk tips
(1) macroeconomic downturn accelerated
(2) the policy is not as expected
(3) large scale outbreak of geo conflict
