Market outlook in March and recommendation of top ten gold stocks
The A-share market in February can be said to be “not much good, but not much bad”. Spring agitation is still absent, the market as a whole is in the game, the style tends to be balanced, and the main line is not clear. “Not much good” is reflected in the fact that the good news such as Tianliang social finance did not bring a significant rebound in the market, while “not much bad” is reflected in the impact of factors such as peripheral geographical conflicts and the expected warming of interest rate hike in the United States. A shares showed a certain degree of toughness and independence. In this case, we should not be pessimistic about the future market.
From the perspective of economic policy, the current triple pressure of “shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation” is prominent. The counter cyclical regulation and control policy urgently needs to be fully implemented and take effect. The demand for steady growth has also changed from “focusing on stability” to “seeking progress in stability”, which shows the government’s confidence and determination in macro-control. With the continuous fulfillment of policy expectations such as broad money, credit and finance, the determination of the policy to support and protect economic growth has been continuously confirmed, and the policy bottom has been established. Taking history as a mirror, we believe that there is still room for further efforts in this round of steady growth policies. The pace and intensity of follow-up policy stimulus may be further adjusted in combination with the feedback of economic data, that is, the short term should enter the “observation period”.
In terms of liquidity, the shift of overseas monetary policy is gradually approaching, and it is imperative for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Will the shift of monetary policy lead to the return of foreign capital to the mainland and affect a shares? The answer is yes, there is a certain disturbance in the near future, and the marginal decline of long-term impact is very small in months. If there is a significant net outflow of land stock connect, how to deal with it? On the whole, foreign capital outflow is not the core factor leading to the decline of the sector, but overvaluation. In the context of the current interest rate hike (t0-t1 stage) + the continuation of peripheral geopolitical conflicts, investors are advised to appropriately avoid the sectors with high valuation.
The recent geopolitical conflict + interest rate increase is expected to continue to disturb the market, and foreign capital may be disturbed in the short term. However, combined with the market performance, it has less impact on the consumption sector and more significant impact on the high valuation TMT sector. In addition, March will usher in the convening of the heavyweight meeting. Looking at the overall situation, we expect the market to remain stable during the two sessions. On the whole, the market is dominated by structural rebound and oversold repair. In terms of layout ideas, maintain balanced configuration:
1) steady growth, both offensive and defensive. In terms of fundamentals, we expect that steady growth will still be the main market. Due to the data vacuum at this stage, the bottom supporting effect of the steady growth policy on the economy remains to be observed. If the transmission from wide currency to wide credit to the real economy is smooth, the focus of steady growth in the next stage will be to boost domestic demand; If the financial infrastructure and real estate investment chain are still under great pressure (if the old infrastructure and real estate investment chain are still under great pressure, it may not be able to expand to the new one).
2) reproduce the scarce growth of cost performance. Based on the performance of foreign capital after being disturbed by the impact, not all the overvalued sectors have been abandoned. The advantageous industries with core competitiveness have better anti risk and anti fluctuation ability. Under the energy revolution, the new energy development road represented by “scenery hydrogen storage” has a long slope and thick snow, and the long-term layout value is reproduced after adjustment.
In March March, Guangdong opened the door for the March March March, and the opening of the Guangdong Guangdong Guangdong securities. The top ten gold stock combinations of the Guangdong Guangdong opening ” ”march March March, with the top ten gold stock portfolios of the securities opening in the March March March, respectively: theopening of the opening of the Guangdong”s opening, which are: China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) 601 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\, Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) .
Risk tips: geopolitical conflicts exceed expectations, economic downward pressure exceeds expectations, and policy promotion is less than expected.
