Strategy: the bottom is clear: there are no big risks and small opportunities
Previously, the internal and external macro impact that the market was worried about was no longer a problem. We believe that the emergence of the market bottom stems from the risk of “external tightening and internal landslide” has long been released. More signs confirmed this trend last week. First, the impact of external liquidity has been fully reflected. Inflation expectations did not rise after US inflation hit a 40 year high. The latest FOMC minutes also remained stable compared with the previous, “no marginal tightening is improvement”. Second, high-frequency data also show that steady growth is effective. The growth rate of excavator sales and operating hours (excluding the Spring Festival effect) has rebounded. The trend of wide credit transmission from the improvement of financial data to the recovery of the real economy is emerging.
The focus of whether there can be a large-scale market is when the liquidity of the stock market will improve. 1、 Growth stocks that have recovered from oversold are more like a rebound than a reversal. Compared with the performance of institutional heavy warehouse stocks since 2020, it is found that there will be a significant difference between rebound and reversal in the first week after oversold: in the first week of the rebound range, the industry will shrink and rise, while in the first week of the reversal range, the industry will rise in large quantities, accompanied by a large amount of capital inflow into the stock market. At present, the above conditions are not met; 2、 Internal and external funds are still in a state of disagreement, and consensus has not yet been established. Due to the undervalued value represented by banks, ETF has made great efforts to allocate the growth sector, and the emotional indicators have not improved in an all-round way. 3、 From broad credit to the overall rise of the market, it needs a significant improvement in fundamental expectations. At present, it is in the early stage of wide credit, dominated by structural opportunities.
When the market goes out of the bottom and the market fluctuates upward, the rebound will not be achieved overnight. Layout along the direction of the highest certainty. The initial stage of credit easing is defined as the recovery of financial data before the bottom of economic fundamentals. Looking back on the history of four rounds of wide credit cycle, the layout along the direction of policy force has a higher winning rate. It has been observed that the development of infrastructure is accelerating: China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) 1 the orders for infrastructure construction increased sharply, the Supervision issued the notice of supplementary submission of special debt projects, urban pipe network and water conservancy are the key supplementary reporting areas, and consumer building materials such as waterproof and pipe materials are expected to benefit. In addition, the number of charging piles stopped falling and rebounded year-on-year, and the grid investment in 2021q4 was also significantly warmer than that in Q3. As of February 18, the disclosure rate of A-share performance and performance forecast has been close to 60%. The differentiation occurs not only between industries, but also within the industry. When the market comes out from the bottom and fluctuates upward, the cost performance of valuation profit is more important: select industries with low PE valuation quantile and high performance growth expectation in the next two years, including construction, building materials and machinery in the “infrastructure chain”; Bank land insurance + coal in the undervalued sector; In addition, the overall recovery of consumption still needs to wait. From the perspective of valuation profit and cost performance, we will screen textile and garment and light industrial manufacturing with obvious performance improvement and low valuation quantile.
Risk tip: the prosperity of the industry is not up to expectations, the macro-economy fluctuates more than expected, the epidemic development is more than expected, and the policy changes are more than expected. Risk release, bottom gradually clear
