Capital analysis: this week, the central bank invested a net 760 billion yuan in the open market, and the capital price was stable as a whole; Next week's fiscal expenditure withdrawal superimposed on the reduction of government debt financing is expected to have a weak impact on capital over the next month. This week, a total of 50 billion yuan of reverse repo expired in the central bank's open market. This week, the central bank conducted a total of 810 billion yuan of reverse repo in the open market, so a net investment of 760 billion yuan this week. The tax period is approaching, the central bank has made large net investment in the open market, and the capital price is stable as a whole. Next week, although the cross month reverse repo will be recovered in a large amount, considering that the overall capital level is relatively loose after the year; February is often a non tax month. The impact of tax payment and withdrawal on capital is relatively limited, and the withdrawal of fiscal expenditure will also supplement the capital; The amount of government bond financing in the first week of March is small, and the overall capital level is expected to remain stable next week.
Interest rate bonds: the adjustment of real estate policy may drive the recovery of broad credit, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will push up oil prices, and the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will accelerate tightening. These adverse factors on the bond market are accumulating, and the yield of long-term bonds is at risk of adjustment. At present, the relatively favorable factors for the bond market are still weak fundamentals and continuous loose monetary policy, but at the same time, the unfavorable factors are also accumulating, such as the adjustment of real estate policy, social finance has begun to rise sharply, global inflation has accelerated the contraction of monetary policies in Europe and the United States, the risk of the bond market is gradually accumulating, and the risk of adjusting long-term interest rates will gradually increase.
Convertible bonds: the equity markets fluctuated, the convertible bond market fluctuated and rose slightly, focusing on the undervalued growth sector, the annual report performance exceeding expectations, communications, new bonds, etc. This week, the equity markets fluctuated, the convertible bond market fluctuated and rose slightly, and nearly 80% of the convertible bonds recorded an upward trend. In the short term, subject to the uncertain situation in Russia and Ukraine, there is a great possibility of market shock in the equity and convertible bond market. The selection of convertible bonds still needs to focus on defense, and pay attention to the undervalued growth sector, the annual report performance exceeding expectations, communications, new bonds, etc.
Equity market: the conflict between Ukraine and Russia triggered global turmoil, and growth stocks rebounded strongly. The Shanghai index fell sharply and rebounded this week, with Shenzhen strong and Shanghai weak. The Shanghai stock index closed at 345141 points this week, down 1.13% this week. The Ukrainian Russian war did not change the trend of stock market operation, and the structural style switching was obvious; Document No. 1 emphasizes Rural Revitalization and pays attention to the leading seed industry with high R & D intensity; The conflict between Ukraine and Russia escalated again, and the prosperity of agrochemical sector increased; Four departments regulate e-cigarette sales, and the industry concentration will be further improved. Looking ahead to the future, the first quarter and the second quarter of 2022 are the window period for China's steady growth policy. From the perspective of counter cyclical regulation and RMB, the overall opportunities of A-Shares may be mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. At present, the value style of A-Shares is based on stage outperformance. In terms of strategy, control the overall position and tap the relevant stocks with continuous outbreak of fundamentals. It is suggested to take steady growth and strategic support as the main line and lay out high-quality tracks with low value, strong certainty and core competitiveness. For example, high-quality developers, new and old infrastructure and sectors with the potential to develop new businesses after the release of real estate credit risk, such as digital economy, new materials and new energy.
