Core view
The coal price formation mechanism has been implemented, and the power system has ushered in favorable conditions. The national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on further improving the coal market price formation mechanism, which defined three key policies and measures: first, guide the coal price to operate within a reasonable range; Second, improve the price transmission mechanism of coal and electricity. Third, improve the coal price regulation mechanism. Further improving the coal market price formation mechanism is conducive to straightening out the price relationship between coal and electricity, promoting the coordinated and high-quality development of upstream and downstream industries, and better ensuring the safe and stable supply of energy. In the future, it will be implemented in coordination with the carbon peak series policies in the energy field to form a joint force of policies and systematically promote the green and low-carbon transformation of energy.
The construction will start in spring, and the market demand for cement and glass will pick up. This week, the cement price began to rise, and the clinker price has also completed several rounds of rise. The rise is mainly due to the low clinker inventory superimposed on the high fuel cost during peak staggering shutdown. At present, although the cement is in the off-season stage, the cement price is still at a historically high level. In terms of demand, with the gradual start-up and recovery of the post holiday market, the operating rate of downstream construction sites shows a steady upward trend, especially the market recovery in the south is better than that in the north. It is expected that with the start-up of construction in spring in March, the peak cement season will come soon. In terms of supply, the staggered peak and kiln shutdown in March will be completed one after another, and the supply of clinker and cement will rise steadily. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises in the cement area. The spot price of float glass continued to rise this week, mainly due to the further replenishment of middle and downstream enterprises before the commencement of construction in spring, which boosted the market price of float glass to a certain extent. With the start of construction in spring, it is expected that the glass market demand will increase steadily and the price of float glass will further increase.
In the context of the new price formation mechanism and international energy tension, the volatility of the coal industry has weakened. On February 24, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on further improving the coal market price formation mechanism. The floating range of the new coal price formation mechanism is further narrower than that in the previous draft for comments, and there is no longer a benchmark price. The price within the range is driven by the market, and the price outside the range will be strengthened by policy regulation; 2) It is clear that coal-fired power prices can be effectively transmitted within a reasonable range, and coal-fired power generation enterprises can timely and reasonably transmit fuel cost changes within the range of no more than 20% of the benchmark price. The mechanism of improving coal price this time is of far-reaching significance, which helps to stabilize the expectation of long-term electricity coal contract price. The annual long-term association price still has a certain room for rise, and has a limited impact on the profitability of enterprises. Another background of the rapid rise of fossil energy prices cannot be ignored., In the medium and long term, coal prices will still be affected to some extent.
Investment recommendations: Environmental Public: recommendations for environmental protection and public: investment recommendations: Environmental Public: investment recommendations: Environmental Public: recommendations for the public: recommendations for the China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ ( Shandong Intco Recycling Resources Co.Ltd(688087) . SH). Building materials: building materials: building materials: building materials: building materials: building materials: the recommended ad shares ( Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) . SZ: building materials: building materials: building materials: the recommended ad shares ( Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) . SZ), Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ ( Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) . SH), China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) ( China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) . Sh). Coal: recommended China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ( China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) . SH), Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) ( Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) . SH), Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) ( Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) . SZ), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) ( Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) ), Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) ( Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) ).
Risk warning: the risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices; The risk that the downstream demand is less than expected; The risk that the landing effect of production restriction is not as good as expected; The risk that the policy strength is less than expected; The risk that the new capacity of the industry exceeds the expectation; The risk of sharp decline in coal prices under the pressure of policy regulation.
