Ping An View:
Real economy: this week, the epidemic situation in China is spreading, the operating rate continues to rise, the inventory of industrial products continues to accumulate, the primary land market is still depressed, the price of coal commodities has been significantly adjusted, and most of the main Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices have fallen. 1) From Monday to Friday (February 21 to February 25), a total of 409 newly confirmed cases were added in 14 provinces and autonomous regions such as Inner Mongolia, Guangdong and Liaoning, compared with 241 new cases in seven provinces and autonomous regions in the same period last week. 2) Most of the operating rates picked up. Among them, the operating rate of Tangshan blast furnace was 44.4%, an increase of 7.9 percentage points month on month; The operating rate of semi steel tire of automobile tire was 55.3%, with a month on month increase of 19.1 percentage points; The operating rate of coking enterprises was 72.7%, an increase of 4.6 percentage points month on month; The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plant was 23.9%, down 1.1 percentage points month on month. Except for the operating rate of automobile tires and semi steel tires, the other three are significantly lower than that in the same period last year, indicating that China's current demand for fixed asset investment is still weak. 3) Accumulation of industrial products. Among the finished products, the rebar factory warehouse + social warehouse increased by 8.2% month on month this week, and the electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 5.2% month on month last week. In the raw material inventory, the port iron ore inventory decreased by 0.9% compared with last week, and the coking coal inventory of independent coking plant can be used for 16.3 days, down 1.1 days compared with last week. 4) The primary land market is still depressed. This week, the average daily sales area of commercial houses in 30 cities continued to rise, and has now recovered to 83.8% of the week before the Spring Festival. Last week, the primary land market was still depressed. The land supply area and land transaction area of Baicheng were only 26.0% and 34.7% respectively in the week before the Spring Festival (the week on January 30). In mid February, the domestic trade container throughput of the eight hub ports jumped from - 20.2% to 46.5% year-on-year, mainly due to the disturbance of returning home and returning home during the Spring Festival, which should not be over interpreted. 5) The price of coal commodity futures has been significantly adjusted. Under the intervention of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price, the futures of coal commodities fell sharply this week, especially on Friday afternoon. Throughout the week, the futures prices of thermal coal, coke and coking coal fell by 8.3%, 4.0% and 1.8% respectively. At present, China's structural inflationary pressure still exists, and the policy is expected to continue to stabilize the prices of important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and upstream commodities Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index fell 0.6% month on month, with wholesale vegetable prices rising 2.4% month on month this week; The wholesale prices of fruits and eggs fell by 1.3% and 1.1% month on month respectively this week; The wholesale price of pork fell 5.7% month on month this week and fell to 18.64 yuan / kg on Friday. It is expected that the imbalance between supply and demand of pigs will continue in the next quarter, and pork prices will continue to face adjustment pressure in the off-season.
Capital market: the capital level has tightened this week. The growth sector in the A-share market has increased relatively greatly, and the RMB and the US dollar have appreciated simultaneously. Specifically, in the money market, disturbed by the tax period, dr007 and R007 closed at 2.53% and 2.34% respectively on Friday, up 38.5bp and 25.2bp respectively compared with last Friday. In terms of the stock market, the release of the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan and the cooling of overseas risk aversion, and the main stock indexes of a shares, zhongkechuang 50 and gem, increased significantly. In the bond market, due to the tightening of capital, the yield of one-year treasury bonds rose the most, and the term interest margin of 10y-1y treasury bonds narrowed by 6.9bp. In the foreign exchange market, the onshore and offshore RMB appreciated by 0.2% against the US dollar this week, and the US dollar index rose by 0.5%.
Risk tip: the steady growth is not as strong as expected, the epidemic situation in China is spreading at multiple points, and geopolitical conflicts are escalating.
