Main points:
China's macro level No. 1 central document issued by the government continues to emphasize the stable supply of planting industry. The dual carbon policy is strengthened, and industrial upgrading and energy storage measures jointly guide carbon reduction; In some areas, the mortgage interest rate was lowered, and the marginal easing of real estate policy continued.
1, No. 1 central document issued, the new "vegetable basket" supply problem, pig prices continued to decline at the beginning of the year, down more than 50% in February, the document stressed the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply regulation means, reduce price fluctuations. In addition, investment in new rural infrastructure has been strengthened, with particular emphasis on the construction of information infrastructure such as digital village. We believe that new rural infrastructure is expected to develop in 2022.
2. At the industrial level, energy conservation and carbon reduction in traditional industries have been strengthened, the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage and the industrial upgrading plan for high energy consuming industries have been issued at the same time, and the transformation and upgrading of chemical industries such as steel and oil refining have been further accelerated. From the perspective of the development path of the energy storage industry, we expect that lithium battery energy storage technology will still be the focus of development during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
3. The Ministry of housing and urban rural development held a press conference to emphasize that the real estate policy should continue the tone of "housing without speculation" and strengthen the regulation of stock markets such as affordable rental housing, old reform, "new urban construction" and building energy-saving transformation. We expect that in the general tone of "no speculation in real estate, real estate will continue to maintain stability, and personal loans, development loans and M & A loans are expected to be marginally loose. In the near future, indemnificatory rental housing loans will not be included in the concentration management of real estate loans, the supervision of pre-sale funds of real estate enterprises or the deregulation of policies will help to alleviate the pressure of real estate financing; Mortgage interest rates in many places have been lowered. Some areas such as Heze, Chongqing and Ganzhou have reduced the down payment ratio of individual housing loans to 20%. With the shortening of bank lending cycle, mortgage loans are expected to stabilize gradually.
4. The national plan for the development of the cause of the elderly and the elderly care service system during the 14th five year plan was issued. It is expected that the silver economy and the elderly care service industry will usher in new opportunities for development. The policy proposes to promote social forces to participate in elderly care services. We believe that the expansion of elderly care institutions can drive investment in relevant industries and reduce residents' elderly care costs.
In terms of overseas macro, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has accelerated and escalated, and the arguments of officials within the Federal Reserve have gradually changed. The war has led to high energy prices, which has exacerbated countries' concerns about inflation.
1. A number of Fed officials made hawkish remarks. Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, US inflation may rise further. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, fed director Waller believes that the possibility of raising interest rates by 50bp in March is increased. We suggest that we need to continue to pay attention to the situation in Russia and Ukraine, US and European sanctions against Russia and the possible impact of US inflation on the tightening of Fed policy.
2. The Bank of England releases the signal of raising interest rates, and monetary policy may be further tightened in the short term. At the same time, the IMF also urged the Bank of England to shrink the table. Considering that the UK is also facing inflation risk, we expect the Bank of England to further adopt tightening policy in March.
3. The New Zealand Federal Reserve raised the policy interest rate to 1% and continued the tight monetary policy to deal with inflation. According to the latest forecast released by the New Zealand Federal Reserve, the official interest rate will rise to 2.5% in the next 12 months and reach a peak of about 3.25% by the end of 2023.
In addition, important local government documents issued this week include:
1. Anhui province's "14th five year plan" for the development of elderly care services
2. The 14th five year plan for scientific and technological innovation of Anhui Province
3. Implementation plan of "four grasping and one opening up" of Gansu water conservancy
4. Incentive measures for grain production in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region (for Trial Implementation)
Risk tip: geopolitical risks far exceeded expectations, and monetary policy tightened more than expected.
