Production is still weak
In February, the output of crude steel decreased by 13.04% year-on-year, an increase over the previous month; The load rate of PTA industrial chain decreased by 0.72%, and the decline narrowed; The operating rate of automobile tires decreased by 27.25%, and the decline expanded. Overall, production is still weak.
Consumption improvement
In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 242500 square meters, down 39.13% from the previous month and 30.24% year-on-year; However, the wholesale sales of car manufacturers of the ride union increased by 40.67% year-on-year, and the retail sales of cars increased by 8.33%, both higher than that of the previous month; The average daily passenger volume of Jiucheng subway increased by 11.87% year-on-year, higher than that of last month. Overall, consumption growth is expected to rise in February.
In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the container throughput of the eight hub ports decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, the growth rate decreased compared with the previous month, and the export boom declined.
Price growth rose slightly
In February, food prices fell by 3.42% month on month and 16.61% year-on-year. The growth rate was basically the same as that of the previous month. However, the growth rate of non food prices increased, and the year-on-year growth rate of high-frequency consumer prices increased by 0.5 percentage points. It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in February will rise slightly.
In February, the year-on-year growth rate of high-frequency production prices also increased slightly, and the year-on-year growth rate of PPI may change the downward trend since November 2021.
Improvement of monetary conditions
In February, the funds after the holiday returned to the banking system, and the money market interest rate fell. Dr007 decreased month on month, and M2 growth rate increased with sufficient power. The year-on-year interest rate spread of dr007 fell, and the currency pulse continued to rise. In February, although the bill interest rate and bill interest margin decreased month on month, they remained relatively high, and the growth rate of social finance was still improving. The year-on-year change of bill interest margin also means that the overall credit pulse is strong, but the driving force is weakened.
RMB exchange rate stability
The appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar and the yen against the US dollar increased by 31.0% and 45.0%, respectively, reflecting the hedging effect of the RMB against the US dollar and the US dollar, while the RMB against the US dollar and the yen rose by 1.0% and 47.0% respectively last week. China's economic accident index relative to the United States has decreased, but on the whole, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is stable.
Risk tips: the epidemic exceeded expectations and geopolitics exceeded expectations
