Index
On March 2, 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 348419 points, down 0.13%; The Shenzhen composite index closed at 133469 points, down 1.05%; The coal industry index closed at 279287 points, up 2.13%. The top three companies are Yunnan Coal & Energy Co.Ltd(600792) , Yankuang energy and Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) . The non-ferrous metals index closed at 596021 points, up 0.99%. The top three companies are: Jiangsu Lidao New Material Co.Ltd(603937) , Ningbo Fubang Jingye Group Co.Ltd(600768) , Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) .
Comments
Electrolytic aluminum led the increase. The power consumption per ton of electrolytic aluminum production is 13500kwh, which is a typical metal variety with high unit energy consumption. Under the background of rising energy costs, there is great pressure on the price and cost of electrolytic aluminum in Europe, which may lead to the reduction and production restriction of electrolytic aluminum plants in Europe, and further worry about the reduction of electrolytic aluminum supply end in the market. Under the influence of relevant emotions, the spot futures of electrolytic aluminum have risen one after another recently, and the related themes rose sharply today. In China, with the end of the Winter Olympics, the production capacity of China’s electrolytic aluminum plant will gradually resume production. Recently, the price of alumina has decreased, the cost of electricity price has little change, and the cost of electrolytic aluminum has remained stable as a whole. After the Spring Festival holiday, the Winter Olympic Games ended smoothly, the downstream processing plants gradually resumed production, and the demand rebounded slightly. It is expected that electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the future will usher in a new round of opportunities driven by both price and demand.
Lithium salt prices continue to rise, so it is recommended to pay attention to relevant opportunities. The price of lithium sector also continued to rise driven by the demand of lithium iron phosphate manufacturers. Since the Spring Festival, the price trend of lithium carbonate has continued to be rapid, with an increase of more than 50000 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival in just two weeks. Under the rigid competition of electric vehicle demand, the battery factory with cost advantage will occupy the market share and advantage. The profits of the industrial chain will move up, and the release of performance in the first quarter and the persistence of high lithium prices supported by supply and demand will gradually reverse the market cognition. The current valuation has returned to a relatively reasonable position. It is suggested to pay attention to two main investment lines. First, the battery factories with alleviated cost pressure and rebounded gross profit: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , etc; II. Lithium resource companies with high lithium price supported by supply and demand and expected to realize excess profits: Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , etc.
Industry dynamics
On February 28, Mianyang Fulin Precision Co.Ltd(300432) ( Mianyang Fulin Precision Co.Ltd(300432) ) announced that the subsidiary Jiangxi Shenghua and the Management Committee of Yichun Economic Development Zone signed the cooperation framework agreement on the investment of new energy lithium battery cathode material industry project, the development and utilization of lithium resources and the guarantee and support of lithium resources, the core raw material corresponding to the industrial project. (Changjiang nonferrous metals)
Company dynamics
Guizhou Zhenhua E-Chem Inc(688707) ( Guizhou Zhenhua E-Chem Inc(688707) ): the current capacity of lithium battery cathode materials is 50000 tons, which will be further increased this year.
Risk tip: the macro economy is less than expected and the development progress of lithium resources is more than expected.
