Macro strategy Daily: Fed chairman Powell: it will be appropriate to raise interest rates in March

Fed chairman Powell: it will be appropriate to raise interest rates in March

On Wednesday, the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee made a semi annual statement on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Powell supports raising interest rates by 25 basis points this month to start the cycle of raising interest rates. At the same time, Powell is open to raising interest rates by a larger margin in the case of overheated inflation. Although the situation in Russia and Ukraine has brought uncertainty to the US economy, Powell said that the necessity of withdrawing support policies during the epidemic period has not changed. In addition, the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce the holdings of related assets after the first interest rate hike.

ADP employment in the United States increased by 475000 in February, with an expected increase of 388000. The previous value decreased by Shanghai Hajime Advanced Material Technology Co.Ltd(301000) and was revised to 509000. The labor market is strong, but the labor market is still tight, wages continue to rise, and energy prices rise under geographical conflicts. At present, fundamentals still support inflation to remain high.

Financing funds

On February 28, the balance of A-share financing was 163099 billion yuan, an increase of 1.575 billion yuan month on month; The balance of margin trading was 1727149 billion yuan, an increase of 1.914 billion yuan month on month. The balance of financing minus securities lending was 1535049 billion yuan, an increase of 1.236 billion yuan month on month.

Land stock connect and Hong Kong stock connect

On March 2, the net purchase transaction of land stock connect on that day was -776 million yuan, including 40.962 billion yuan of purchase transaction and 41.738 billion yuan of sales transaction, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of 1657833 billion yuan. Hong Kong stock connect had a net purchase transaction of HK $2.335 billion on the same day, including a purchase transaction of HK $14.198 billion and a sale transaction of HK $11.863 billion, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of HK $2237432 billion.

Money market

On March 2, Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) inter-bank offered rate Shibor overnight interest rate was 1.8870%, up 8.60bp, Shibor one week was 2.0460%, up 1.70bp. The weighted interest rate of pledged repo of deposit institutions was 1.8641% overnight, up 9.23bp, and 2.0078% a week, up 2.23bp. The 10-year yield to maturity of China national debt was 2.8175%, up 1.50bp.

Overseas stock market

On March 2, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 3389135 points, up 1.79%; The S & P 500 index closed at 438654 points, up 1.86%; The NASDAQ index closed at 1375202, up 1.62%. European stock markets, French CAC index closed at 649802 points, up 1.59%; Germany’s DAX index closed at 1400011 points, up 0.69%; The FTSE 100 index closed at 742956, closing flat at 0.00%. In the Asia Pacific market, the Nikkei index closed at 2639303 points, down 1.68%; The Hang Seng Index closed at 2234392 points, down 1.84%.

Foreign exchange rate

On March 2, the dollar index fell 0.05% to 973539. The euro fell 0.00% against the dollar to 1.1123. The dollar rose 0.57% against the yen to 1155745. Sterling rose 0.44% against the dollar to 1.3384. The spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3107, up 0.03%. The spot exchange rate of offshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3246, depreciating by 0.10%. The central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3351, depreciating by 0.53%.

Gold, crude oil

On March 2, Comex gold futures fell 0.86% to close at US $193080/oz. WTI crude oil futures rose 4.76% to close at US $111.40/barrel. Brent crude oil futures rose 6.40% to close at US $114.54/barrel. COMEX copper futures rose 2.26% to close at US $4.6770/lb. LME copper three-month futures rose 1.74% to close at US $10255 / ton.

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