Strategy suggestion
Weekly trend of CCXI high yield bond wealth index: last week, the index showed a fluctuating upward trend. On February 25, the index point was 135.44, up 0.089%.
Clearing the implicit debt to some extent means that the urban investment platform is separated from the credit support of the local government, and the external support may be reduced. It is suggested that investors continue to pay attention to the follow-up market-oriented transformation process and the ability to obtain cash from operation of the weak urban investment platform: Recently, some regions said that they would promote the pilot work of clearing the implicit debt step by step. For the urban investment platform that does not undertake important functions, The clearing of implicit debt to some extent means that the urban investment platform is separated from the credit support of local governments, and the external support may be reduced. It is suggested that investors continue to pay attention to the follow-up market-oriented transformation process and cash acquisition ability of such platforms.
The national development and Reform Commission issued a civilized decision on the reasonable range of the price of thermal coal long-term association, which is conducive to reducing the risk of large fluctuation of coal price and improving the performance certainty of coal enterprises. It is suggested that investors pay due attention to relevant investment opportunities: on February 24, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on further improving the price formation mechanism of coal market, which defined the reasonable range of the annual price of thermal coal long-term association, It is conducive to reducing the risk of large fluctuations in coal prices, improving the performance certainty of coal enterprises, and investors are advised to pay appropriate attention to relevant investment opportunities.
Primary market: the issuance scale rebounded sharply, and the issuance interest rate and interest margin decreased
Issuance: last week, there were 23 high-yield bonds with results, 16 more than the previous week, and the total issuance increased by 8.313 billion yuan to 13.563 billion yuan; The weighted issuance interest rate is 6.63% and the weighted credit spread is 438.27bp.
Secondary market: the net price index fluctuated and fell, and the transaction scale increased significantly
Operation: last week, the passive net price index of CCXI high-yield bonds fluctuated and fell as a whole. 1) From the perspective of main categories, the decline of non-state-owned enterprises is relatively high; 2) From the perspective of regions and industries, most of the net price indexes of urban investment bonds in key regions fell, while those in Guangxi and Chongqing fell higher; The net price index of key industries of industrial bonds rose and fell, the comprehensive and coal industries led the rise, and the real estate industry continued to lead the decline.
Turnover: last week, the total turnover of high-yield bonds was 70.744 billion yuan, an increase of 13.98% over the previous week, accounting for 8.63% of the total turnover of narrow credit bonds in the secondary market, an increase of 1.32 percentage points over the previous week. 1) From the perspective of trading volume and price, the urban investment of investment type high-yield bonds accounted for more than 90%, and the tail trading of the main body of speculative high-yield bond industry increased; 2) From the perspective of valuation deviation, the scale with absolute value of 2% or above accounted for 16.73%, an increase of 1.35 percentage points over the previous week.
Risk focus: Credit Risk Spillover effect policy tightened more than expected
Dynamic bond market risk
The extension of “18 oceanwide G1” bonds and the cross protection clauses triggered by multiple bonds of Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) group.
Cedar Industrial Group Co., Ltd. Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) subject and debt rating downgraded.
The ratings of Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Guangdong Highsun Group Co.Ltd(000861) entities and debts were downgraded, and the rating outlook was downgraded to negative.
Shanghai Kehua Bio-Engineering Co.Ltd(002022) , main body and debt of Zhengrong real estate Holding Co., Ltd. were included in the rating observation list.
