Research conclusion
Event: on March 1, 2022, the National Bureau of statistics released the latest China purchasing manager index. In February, the manufacturing PMI index recorded 50.2% (the former value was 50.1%), the non manufacturing business activity index recorded 51.6% (the former value was 51.1%), and the comprehensive PMI output index recorded 51.2% (the former value was 51.0%).
Production PMI has dropped, but it is still expanding. The expansion of manufacturing production and operation activities slowed down, and the production PMI in February was 50.4%, compared with the previous value of 50.9%. Among them, the PMI of non-metallic mineral products, ferrous metal smelting and calendering production is significantly lower than that of Kuo Rong line.
Demand picked up significantly, PMI of new orders returned to the expansion range, and PMI of new export orders rose for two consecutive months. In February, new orders and new export orders were 50.7% and 49%, up 1.4 and 0.6 percentage points respectively from the previous value. As the effect of the steady growth policy further appeared, the PMI of new orders returned to the expansion range after 7 months. Among them, the demand of medicine, special equipment and automobile manufacturing industry is relatively strong, and the PMI of new orders is higher than 54.0%; The demand of non-metallic mineral products, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry is relatively low, and the PMI of new orders is lower than 46.0%.
The inventory is down and the purchase volume has picked up, which may be related to the recovery of demand. In February, the inventory of raw materials and finished products was 48.1% and 47.3%, down 1 and 0.7 percentage points respectively from the previous value, continuing the decline in the previous period. However, at the same time, the purchase volume and import PMI were 50.9% and 48.6%, 0.7 and 1.4 percentage points higher than the previous value respectively.
The PMI of purchase price and ex factory price of main raw materials continued to rise, but the increase of the difference between the former and the latter was significantly reduced. In February, the purchase price and ex factory price PMI of main raw materials were 60% and 54.1%, up 3.6 and 3.2 percentage points respectively compared with the previous value, that is, the difference between the purchase price and ex factory price PMI increased by 0.4 percentage points month on month, far less than the 2.9 percentage points of last month, which may be related to "price protection" measures such as recent interviews with coal enterprises.
PMI in high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries has changed from decline to rise. The PMI of high-tech manufacturing industry, equipment manufacturing industry and consumer goods industry were 53.1%, 51.4% and 51.8%, respectively 1.2%, 1.1 and 1.6 percentage points higher than the previous value.
The recovery of domestic demand supports the recovery of the prosperity of large and medium-sized enterprises, and the production and operation pressure of small enterprises is still large. The PMI of large, medium and small enterprises were 51.8%, 51.4% and 45.1% respectively, with an increase of 0.2%, 0.9% and - 0.9% compared with the previous value. Among them, the overall demand of large enterprises recovered, and the PMI of new export orders rose sharply by 1.6 percentage points to 51%, returning to above the dry and prosperous line; The domestic demand of medium-sized enterprises only strengthened. The PMI of new orders increased by 3.2 percentage points to 53.1%, and the PMI of new export orders decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 47.8%; The demand of small enterprises is still insufficient. The PMI of new orders decreased by 1 percentage point to 41.7%, and the PMI of new export orders increased slightly by 0.7 percentage point to 41%, but it is still low. In addition, it may be related to the impact of the epidemic in Jiangsu on the local resumption of work and production after the festival (Jiangsu's private economy is relatively developed). The PMI of small enterprises decreased by 4.2 percentage points compared with the previous value, dragging down the overall production.
Spring Festival consumption led to a rebound in the boom level of the service industry. The business activity index of the service industry was 50.5%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous value. By industry, thanks to the Spring Festival consumption, the PMI of railway transportation, air transportation, postal express, culture, sports and entertainment all rose to more than 57%; Affected by the repeated epidemic, the PMI of retail and residential services are below 45%. Although the epidemic is still repeated and the recovery of the service industry is blocked, the implementation of various rescue policies has further improved the business expectations of relevant enterprises. The expected index of business activities in the service industry rose by 2.9 percentage points to 59.6%, the highest since August 2021.
The civil engineering construction industry has led to the rise of the overall construction industry. The business activity index of the construction industry was 57.6%, up from 55.4%. Among them, the new order index and business activities are expected to be 55.1% and 66%, up 1.8 and 1.6 percentage points respectively compared with the previous value, or related to moderately advanced infrastructure investment. The business activity index of civil engineering construction industry was 58.6%, 8.9 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, driving the prosperity level of the construction industry.
Strong demand, strong expectation and weak production of small enterprises are important features of PMI this month. As the effect of the policy of "ensuring supply and stabilizing price" continues to appear, various policies and measures for stabilizing growth are gradually refined and implemented, domestic demand is expected to continue to pick up, and the drag of small enterprises on overall production is expected to be reduced. It is expected that the stable and positive trend of PMI will not change.
Risk tips
International geopolitical conflicts affect external demand.
