In February, the manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, operating in the expanded range for four consecutive months. Overall, the rise of new order index drives the overall PMI value to rise in the expansion range.
In terms of manufacturing demand, in February, the new order index was 50.7%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over the previous month, returning to above the boom and bust line. Credit recovered under the credit easing policy, and the policy signal of "stabilizing the real estate market" led to the rebound of house prices, which jointly boosted the demand of manufacturing industry. In terms of external demand, the new export order index in February was 49.0%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, but it is still in the contraction range, and there is great uncertainty in the external demand market. In terms of manufacturing supply, in February, the production index was 50.4%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, mainly affected by the Spring Festival holiday and the low prosperity level of high energy consuming industries.
From the difference index between the new order index and the finished product inventory index in February, the difference increased significantly compared with the previous month, or it indicates that the momentum of the manufacturing economy has rebounded driven by the steady growth policy. In February, the purchase price and ex factory price index of PMI raw materials rose sharply. It is expected that the month on month increase of PPI in February may be about 0.6%; In February, the year-on-year increase in purchase prices of industrial producers may be above 11%. From the perspective of enterprise scale, in February, large and medium-sized enterprises continued to expand, while small enterprises still contracted.
At present, China's economy will continue to face the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation. From the perspective of China, under the chaos of repeated epidemics and global shocks caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the steady growth policy will continue to increase its strength. In the real estate industry, the policy of stabilizing the real estate market has led to the rise of house prices. It is expected that the financing pressure of real estate enterprises will be relieved in the second half of the year, and the investment in real estate development will pick up. In the manufacturing industry, the cost of raw materials, labor costs and capital constraints restrict the production and operation of enterprises, and the policy of helping enterprises to bail out still needs to be promoted and implemented.
Overseas, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had an impact on international energy and food prices, international supply chains and global financial markets. The interruption of local supply of energy and food will further exacerbate the risk of global inflation, and geopolitical conflicts will also put pressure on global economic growth. The foreign trade situation is expected to be complex this year, but China's industrial chain and supply chain advantages will help stabilize the basic market of foreign trade.
Based on the support of China's steady growth policy, we predict that China's GDP may grow by about 5.5% year-on-year in 2022; At the same time, this year's industrial added value is expected to achieve a growth level slightly higher than GDP growth.
