Event:
In mid February, the PMI index of mining and manufacturing industry recorded 50.2, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; Non manufacturing PMI recorded 51.6, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; In February, the comprehensive PMI index recorded 51.2, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
The overall average level of the index, and the policy promotes the recovery of demand
In order to eliminate the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, we take the average of the manufacturing PMI index in January and February: the manufacturing PMI index recorded an average of 50.2 in January and February this year, and the average value of the past decade (excluding the extreme situation in 2020) was 50.3, which means that the overall momentum of the manufacturing industry at the beginning of this year is at the average level of the past decade, not very weak, but not very strong. In terms of breakdown items, the manufacturing PMI production index recorded 50.4, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and was on the boom and bust line for four consecutive months. On the one hand, the decline of the production index was related to the Spring Festival holiday, on the other hand, the holding of the Winter Olympic Games also had a certain impact; The new order index recorded 50.7, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month. It returned to the boom and bust line for the first time since July last year, and the effect of steady growth policy began to appear.
Medium sized enterprises have rebounded against the season, and small enterprises have no worries about the downturn
The PMI index of large enterprises recorded 51.8 this month, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, and the PMI index of medium-sized enterprises recorded 51.4, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous value. The PMI index of medium-sized enterprises reflects strong anti seasonal factors, and it can be seen that the effect of steady growth policy is gradually emerging. The PMI index of small enterprises recorded 45.1, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, the lowest since February 2020. There are certain seasonal factors in the decline of PMI index of small enterprises, and lower values were recorded in the same period of 2018 and 2019, because the Spring Festival holiday is in February. At the same time, the spread of the epidemic and the rise in raw material prices have also restrained the business activities of small enterprises to a certain extent. Therefore, there is no need to worry too much about the decline of PMI of small enterprises this month.
There are bright spots and hidden worries, and pay attention to the economic growth goal
Manufacturing PMI new order index, construction PMI index and service PMI index all show that under the force of steady growth policy, the effect gradually appears. Recent overseas geopolitical conflicts have exacerbated the upward trend of commodity prices and added uncertainty to China's future exports to Europe. Although there were many marginal positive factors in February, if we look at the historical average level, the manufacturing PMI can only be said to be good, and the non manufacturing PMI is still relatively low. Whether the economy can reach the bottom in the first quarter may require further data verification. At the same time, pay attention to the setting of this year's GDP economic growth target, which is related to the strength and rhythm of further macro policies.
Risk tips
Geographical conflicts exceeded expectations, epidemic development exceeded expectations, and inflation exceeded expectations
