Event: on March 2, 2022, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on promoting a virtuous cycle of economy and finance and high-quality development. Guo Shuqing, chairman of Bank Of China Limited(601988) Insurance Regulatory Commission, introduced the relevant situation and answered reporters' questions.
The content of the press conference has distinctive characteristics of "steady growth". At the press conference with similar contents on the same day last year, in addition to chairman Guo Shuqing, there were CDB (scientific and technological innovation of development financial services and profit transfer of the financial industry), Agricultural Bank of China (non-performing rate under the impact of the epidemic and rural finance), PICC (three pillars of the endowment insurance system) and SINOSURE (supporting foreign trade). This year, the Export Import Bank (supporting foreign trade) ICBC (service industry and manufacturing are traditional characteristics), China Construction Bank (Housing leasing platform supports new citizens, bank stock price and financial services sink), life insurance (three pillars of endowment insurance system) and Taibao (financial support Dawan District).
Focusing on the weak links of macro economy, the support for "new citizens" is an important increment: in terms of steady growth measures, we should first support the production and operation of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, especially the small, medium-sized and micro enterprises currently in a difficult state. In addition, we should also Support Rural Revitalization and provide good services to "new citizens", It basically continues the content of the 2022 CBRC working meeting held on January 24 - improving the quality and efficiency of financial services and rural revitalization, and helping "new citizens" live and start businesses in cities and towns. How to interpret the formulation of "new citizens"? We believe that a reasonable increase in real estate demand will be one of the results, but this is not a simple real estate policy, which should be fully understood: on the one hand, the expansion of financial services (on the premise of reasonable risk control) means the increase of short-term consumption power, which will become an important part of promoting consumption, on the other hand, "Soliciting the opinions of more than a dozen departments" also shows that this is a package of policies involving multiple sub sectors. For example, chairman Guo Shuqing mentioned at the meeting that migrant workers have no fixed units, so they are unable to issue income certificates. From the public information, at present, many places have loan policies for flexible employees without fixed units, However, it needs provident fund payment certificate or tax payment certificate, which may be more difficult for migrant workers. Therefore, the solution of this problem also needs to improve the social security level of migrant workers.
Financial anti-corruption and disposal of financial risks are integrated. The meeting pointed out that "we should promote the punishment of financial corruption and the prevention and control of financial risks as a whole". Prior to this, the Politburo meeting on February 25 proposed to strengthen the supervision of top leaders and leading groups in the financial field and rectify typical common problems such as violating the spirit of the eight point provisions of the Central Committee and the "revolving door" of politics and business. The "revolving door" refers to the transfer of regulators' personnel to the market, which may lead to the behavior of seeking improper benefits. In the future, more perfect policies and norms may be issued. The five-year national financial work conference in 2022 will be held soon, and anti-corruption and risk prevention are expected to become important keywords of this conference.
The expression of real estate is more balanced. It contains both the marginal change of the fixed tone and the risk of hinting, including the fundamental reversal of the problem of "bubbles in real estate and monetization". "There is a problem of 'building large households' in banking services, especially in the real estate field. We are also deeply reflecting and summarizing" (which may be related to the credit risk of some real estate enterprises). Looking forward to the follow-up, combined with the meeting of the Political Bureau in February, it was proposed to "strengthen the implementation of macro policies, stabilize the overall economic market" and "strive to complete the objectives and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year", indicating that there are still concerns about the development of the macro situation and that "promoting the sound cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry" is still in the process of promotion.
On the whole, the means of CBRC to support steady growth are still being launched, and the "new citizens" financial services and bank led housing rental platform mentioned at the meeting are not a temporary move to promote economic growth in the short term, but a long-term mechanism to achieve steady growth and promote people's livelihood through the innovation and improvement of systems and mechanisms, which is worthy of more expectation.
Risk tips
The epidemic spread locally, affecting the financing needs of residents and enterprises;
The Fed's monetary tightening exceeded expectations and affected the trend of monetary policy.
