Looking back on the A-share market last week, affected by the sudden change of the international situation, A-shares were not spared, having experienced a week of ups and downs. Fortunately, on Friday, A-Shares showed a counter attack trend, the general rising market reappeared, the industry and concept sectors were almost “red”, and the local profit-making effect soared.
As Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned, the A-share market suffered a large shock due to the escalating geopolitical risks last week, and made a deep correction last Tuesday and Thursday. Some funds believe that the geopolitical crisis triggered short-term fluctuations in market sentiment. Russia and Ukraine launched a war and smashed a “golden pit”. They accelerated the admission of “bottom reading” on Friday, and the market trading was active, driving the recovery of many A-share sectors.
From the technical point of view, Dongguan Securities pointed out that on Friday, the three major A-share indexes rebounded with shock, and the popularity rebounded. The volume of the two markets could exceed trillion. The northward capital showed a trend of net inflow, and the short-term technical level has been repaired. However, the disturbance in the periphery remains to be observed. The market may still have shock consolidation. Pay attention to the geopolitical changes in the periphery . Operationally, it is suggested to pay attention to finance Petroleum and petrochemical, building materials, steel and other industries.
As far as the future is concerned, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the high point of geopolitical risk impact may have passed, and the risk disturbance is mainly reflected in the emotional level. March will enter the observation period of the preliminary effect of the steady growth policy , and it is expected that the follow-up policy will continue to increase and enter the concentrated development period. The “three bottoms” of A-Shares have been confirmed in turn. It is suggested to maintain a high position and stick to the main line of steady growth, Adhere to the balanced allocation of the two dimensions of industry and style, and focus on the layout of “two low positions”.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) mentioned that repeatedly grinding the bottom is more solid, and the bargain hunting layout of three main lines . Affected by geopolitical emergencies, investors’ risk appetite decreased, resulting in increased volatility of global assets. Given that China has a complete industrial chain and little inflation pressure in China, RMB assets have been given the attribute of risk aversion. It is expected that the disturbance of overseas risk events to the A-share market is relatively short. The following two sessions will be held, and it is expected that the steady growth policy will still be intensively implemented, and A-Shares are still in the policy dividend period; In addition, A-share enterprises have successively entered the disclosure period of the first quarterly report of the annual report, and the sectors with high profit growth and business reversal will become the main line.
In terms of allocation, the institution further analyzed the bargain hunting layout of three main investment lines: first, the allocation varieties of policy “steady growth”, such as “banking, real estate, building materials and construction”; Second, “food and beverage, breeding, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) “, etc. expected to benefit from price increase (price increase); Third, the theme of benefiting from the promotion of policies (support) is related to “new energy (vehicles), digital economy, counting from the east to the west, agriculture, rural areas and farmers” etc.
In the macro aspect, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) pointed out that we recently stressed that experienced “policy bottom, sentiment bottom and growth bottom” in the first half of this year . At present, the policy bottom has been relatively clear. The higher than expected credit Social Finance data in January further confirmed the “policy bottom”. If the geography and epidemic situation no longer exceed the expectation, the “sentiment bottom” is expected to be gradually confirmed, Subsequently, with the gradual implementation of the steady growth policy, the “bottom of growth” may also gradually appear from the first quarter to the second quarter. There is no need to be overly pessimistic about the big market in the follow-up. In terms of structure, the risk of growth stocks has been released in the early sharp correction, and they are gradually entering the stage of “bargain hunting”; The “steady growth” sector fluctuates more, but there may still be room for performance in the future. On the whole, compared with the “stable growth” in the early stage, the market style is likely to gradually transition to a relatively balanced stage.
In terms of operational strategy, the agency further analyzed that currently focuses on three directions : 1) potential areas of policy support, including infrastructure, industrial chains related to the stable demand of real estate (building materials, construction, household appliances, home furnishings, etc.), brokerage finance, etc; 2) For the middle and lower reaches consumption that has been adjusted in 2021, the valuation is not high and the medium and long-term prospects are still clear, choose stocks from the bottom up, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, the Internet, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc; 3) Manufacturing growth sectors, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, have released risks, and may enter the bargain hunting stage in the future.
Guosheng Securities believes that the core feature of the recent market is the style, recycling and convergence, and the main line is unknown . As the peak season is approaching and the resumption of production is approaching, the landing effect of stable growth in the early stage is about to usher in an important observation period. The next 1-2 months will be an important decision-making window for a shares. We will deduce two scenarios of the medium-term trend of the market . Strategic suggestions and industry recommendations: (1) the widening trend of credit conditions is confirmed, the downward policy of economic inertia is heating up, and high-quality banks, state-owned enterprise developers and buildings / building materials are recommended; （2） The market sentiment is repaired from the bottom, and the computer catalyzed by the concept of communication and digital economy in the direction of new infrastructure development is recommended; （3） Household appliances with relatively low valuation in the real estate cycle and tourism trips with the concept of dilemma reversal.
Cinda securities is quite impressive for the current market. It points out that the market is in the process of tactical rebound from February to March. The growth of oversold in the early stage and the cyclical sector with good short-term performance may have performance. If strategic allocation is considered, we suggest that the value of over allocation in the first half of the year and the growth of over allocation in the second half of the year .
Specific allocation directions: (1) in the middle and later stages of economic downturn, financial, real estate, construction and other sectors can advance and retreat, and the comparative advantage brought by the steady growth policy can generally last for half a year, and can continue to exceed the allocation until Q2 in 2022; (2) The supply and demand cycle of hotel, aviation, military industry and other industries is independent, and it can be paid attention to all year in 2022. The performance of hotels and airlines is in line with expectations. Due to the problems of market style and performance forecast, the military industry has made a large adjustment, but it does not change the big logic. It is still recommended to pay attention to it; (3) The growth sector has a large decline in the early stage, and there is the possibility of oversold rebound. It is suggested to pay attention to computers and media.
Caitong Securities Co.Ltd(601108) mentioned that “Russia Ukraine incident” broke out suddenly, the Federal Reserve is facing two-way pressure of inflation and risk avoidance, and short-term growth may usher in a breathing opportunity . Focus on the opportunities of photovoltaic and wind power in “double carbon” economy, data center and cloud computing chain in digital economy. The real estate chain and banks with the main line of “big finance” grasp the opportunity of additional allocation.
First, growth breathing direction, the core around two chains , first, around the “double carbon” economy, combined with the current direction of reasonable chip structure, upward prosperity and guaranteed performance, photovoltaic and wind power. Second, under the background of “counting from the east to the west”, build national data center clusters in Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Dawan District, Yangtze River Delta, Chengdu Chongqing, Guizhou, Gansu, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. The digital economy will rise as a national strategy in the 14th five year plan, and we can pay attention to the infrastructure direction represented by cloud computing and data center.
Second, economic downward pressure and steady growth policy hedge, plus marginal improvement of relevant policies for real estate enterprises . 1) The State Council encourages qualified areas to carry out the renewal of rural household appliances and implement subsidies for furniture and home decoration to the countryside. 2) national measures for the supervision of real estate pre-sale funds have been issued, and the flexibility of fund use has been improved. These steady growth policies are improving, as the city’s policy implementation is being strengthened and the demand side relaxation is being implemented. We can pay attention to state-owned and private enterprises of high-quality real estate. Those with strong alpha attribute in the real estate chain and C-end consumption attribute, such as home appliances, household appliances and consumer building materials, are expected to usher in the dual catalysis of valuation repair and performance growth.
Third, the credit data of January has been verified. The macro economy is picking up from the bottom, and the whole is still in the window period of monetary easing and credit easing market has low risk appetite in the near future, and the banking sector with low valuation, high dividend attribute and pro cyclical attribute is expected to be favored . At the same time, since 2016, the bank has continuously cleared the asset quality + made a large number of full provisions, with less bad book. In the future, the bank may have an upward roe, and the improvement of asset quality will contribute to the recovery of the valuation of the banking sector. We can focus on large banks that underestimate the value of “stagflation” and urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks in Chengdu Chongqing economic circle and Yangtze River Delta economic circle.
