Report summary
In October 2021, with the active and effective prevention and control of the epidemic in China and the implementation of relevant policies to increase production and ensure supply, most macroeconomic indicators rebounded compared with September, and the downward momentum of the economy was curbed to a certain extent. Nevertheless, compared with the previous growth rate, the current overall economic growth momentum is still weak, and the growth rate of various indicators is running at a low level. In particular, the investment in fixed assets decreased by 1.2 percentage points compared with September, indicating that the economic momentum is weakened, and the two show a certain degree of growth differentiation compared with the growth trend at both ends of supply and demand.
From the demand side, In the National Day holiday effect (such as the continuous popularity of duty-free shopping on Hainan outlying islands), "double 11" Under the combined effect of the early diversion of pre-sale at the shopping festival and the significant rise in non food prices dominated by transportation and communication, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 4.9% year-on-year in October, up 0.5 percentage points from September, exceeding market expectations, and the overall consumption recovered steadily; Although the manufacturing industry as a whole maintained a prosperous state, which contributed to the continuous improvement of investment, subject to the lack of significant improvement in infrastructure investment and the introduction of real estate tax, coupled with the continuous inhibition of real estate investment by the tightening of real estate regulation policies in the early stage, the fixed asset investment increased by 6.1% year-on-year in October, down 1.2 percentage points from September, lower than the market expectation; The supply chain bottleneck caused by overseas economic recovery and labor shortage seems to be improving. At the same time, under the effect of high base effect, In October, exports increased by 27.1% (in US dollars) year-on-year, down 1 percentage point from September, but export growth remained high; although China's economic momentum weakened and superimposed production and power restrictions suppressed import growth, the rise of commodity prices still formed a certain amount of support for import growth. In October, imports increased by 20.6% year-on-year, up 3 percentage points from September.
From the supply side, under the influence of the gradual and restrictive factors such as the limited power production policy and the increase of market efforts to ensure supply and stabilize price, manufacturing (especially high-tech manufacturing) and mining output rebounded year-on-year, driving the added value of industries above Designated Size to increase by 3.5% year-on-year in October, 0.4 percentage points higher than that in September, an average increase of 5.2% in two years, and 0.2 percentage points higher than that in September. Nevertheless, as the prices of bulk commodities and other raw materials continue to remain high, crowding out the profits of midstream and downstream enterprises, resulting in increased cost pressure and production pressure Insufficient power, still need further attention.
In terms of price, affected by factors such as the seasonal recovery of consumer demand, abnormal weather and the rise of production and transportation costs, food prices rebounded significantly, driving CPI to increase by 1.5% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points higher than that in September, 0.7 percentage points higher than that in September; Due to the repeated epidemic of delta + variant abroad, the supply of production enterprises is limited, the global bulk commodities such as energy products and raw materials continue to rise, and the supply of main energy and raw materials in China is tight due to extreme weather phenomena and double control and double carbon policy. The increase of PPI continues to expand. In October, PPI increased by 13.5% year-on-year, 2.8 percentage points higher than that in September, and 2.5% month on month, It was 1.3 percentage points higher than that in September. In addition, due to the fact that the short-term market supply and demand gap has not been narrowed, and the impact of factors such as the rise of product prices in coal and some high energy consuming industries, industrial ex factory prices continue to rise, and the differentiation of means of production and means of living continues to widen.
In terms of money and finance, due to the great pressure on enterprise production costs caused by the relatively high price of bulk commodities, enterprise production is facing difficulties. Bills with the advantages of low credit risk and high liquidity have been well supported. At the same time, superimposed with the low base effect, RMB loans increased by 826.2 billion yuan in October, an increase of 136.4 billion yuan year-on-year; With the new amount of local government special bonds to be issued in November this year and the increase of bill financing, the increase of social financing scale in October was 1.59 trillion yuan, an increase of 1970 billion yuan over the same period last year; Although the newly increased fiscal deposits this month amounted to 1.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 205 billion yuan over the same period last year, resulting in greater efforts to withdraw money and reducing the year-on-year growth rate of M2, the year-on-year increase in New RMB loans this month contributed to money creation, driving the balance of broad money (M2) in October to 233.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, 0.4 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month, 1.8 percentage points lower than the same period last year.
