Macro categories:
As of 17:00 on November 25, Shanghai reported three new locally confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia. The risk of local epidemic situation in China rose again, threatening short-term economic expectations, especially the general adjustment of industrial products such as night color, black and chemical products. At present, no significant negative news has been observed, so we need to pay attention to short-term changes.
In China, the expected margin of credit easing policy has strengthened recently. Chengdu said that it coordinated financial institutions to increase the credit line of real estate, and the financing environment of real estate enterprises has improved. In addition, the expectation of infrastructure stimulus has also been continuously improved. The national Standing Committee has made it clear that it is necessary to speed up the issuance of the remaining special bond amount during the year, and reasonably put forward the special bond amount and distribution plan for next year. China’s real estate and infrastructure investment side is expected to improve, and there is some support for the valuation of relevant stock sectors and domestic demand industrial products (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal) in the short term. In the follow-up, we need to pay close attention to the policy direction of the economic work conference in December and the interpretation of China’s broad credit expectation.
The short-term increase of the three major A-share Stock Index Futures (IH / if / IC) is cautious, and the commodity index and national debt maintain a neutral view; in order, the three major stock indexes (IH / if / IC) > commodity > national debt; on the whole, supported by the strong short-term credit expectation, A-share and domestic demand industrial products have a certain chance of rebound in the short term, but they still maintain a neutral judgment in the medium term; precious metals, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) It still has macro multi allocation value; Foreign demand industrial products such as new energy, nonferrous metals and crude oil chain continue to be optimistic in the medium term.
Strategy (strength ranking): three major stock indexes (IH / if / IC) > commodities > treasury bonds;
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; Deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait.
