Policy release
The executive meeting of the State Council deployed to improve the management of special bonds of local governments, optimize the use of funds and strictly supervise funds. The meeting required that in the face of the new downward pressure on the economy, we should strengthen cross cycle regulation, continue to do a good job in local government debt management, prevent and resolve risks, give better play to the role of special debt funds in driving social funds, and expand effective investment, so as to expand domestic demand and promote consumption. （Wind）
Comments: the data show that in October 2021, the country issued 876.1 billion yuan of local government bonds. Among them, RMB 232 billion in general bonds and RMB 644.1 billion in special bonds were issued. After entering the second half of the year, the issuance of China's special bonds began to speed up. According to the requirement of the Ministry of finance that the amount of new special bonds in 2021 should be issued as soon as possible before the end of November, the issuance speed of new special bonds is significantly lower than expected. The meeting proposed to speed up the issuance of the remaining amount of special bonds this year, do a good job in expenditure management, and strive to form more physical workload at the beginning of next year.
The correlation between special bonds and infrastructure investment has been continuously improved, land transfer income, urban investment bonds, PPP, non-standard and other important sources of funds have shrunk, and the importance of special bonds to infrastructure has gradually increased. Special bonds have always played an important role in stabilizing investment, expanding domestic demand and making up for weaknesses. At present, with the increasing pressure on economic growth, special bonds are needed to give full play to their effectiveness and help the counter cyclical adjustment effect of infrastructure construction.
Key macro dynamics
1. Since October this year, the supply level of power coal has increased significantly. The coal supply has increased by more than 30% compared with the same period last year, which continues to exceed the coal consumption. The coal storage in the power plant has rebounded rapidly. Since the middle and late November, the consumption of electric coal has increased, but the daily average coal supply has reached 8.6 million tons, the highest reaching the historical peak of 9.43 million tons. The daily average coal supply is nearly 2 million tons greater than the coal consumption, and the coal storage in the power plant continues to grow rapidly. On November 23, the coal storage of power plants across the country reached 147 million tons, and the coal storage of power plants in China grid region has exceeded the level in the same period last year. It is expected that by the end of November this year, the coal storage of the power plant may comprehensively exceed that of the same period last year, reaching the highest level in history, and the coal for power generation and heating will be effectively guaranteed this winter and next spring. (National Development and Reform Commission)
2. According to the data released by the Ministry of finance, from January to October, the total profit of state-owned enterprises was 3825.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.6% and an average increase of 14.1% in two years. Among them, central enterprises were 2532.65 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44.0% and an average increase of 14.2% in two years; local state-owned enterprises were 1292.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 55.3% and an average increase of 13.8% in two years. (Ministry of Finance)
Risk statement
Epidemic change
Changes in monetary policy
Debt risk
