Ping An View:
Real economy: the local epidemic improved, most of the operating rates fell, and the spot of black commodities fell. 1) The number of newly confirmed cases in China fell sharply this week. From Monday to Friday, 20 new cases were diagnosed in Liaoning, Yunnan and Shanghai, down nearly half from 6 provinces, autonomous regions and 36 cases in the same period last week. Recently, the super mutant strain Omicron appeared overseas, and the focus of China's anti epidemic has turned to external prevention and input. 2) Most industrial operating rates fell. The national blast furnace operating rate, petroleum asphalt unit operating rate and coking enterprise operating rate all fell month on month, and the operating rate of automobile tire semi steel tire rebounded slightly. We are concerned about the marginal impact of overseas epidemic trend and poor export expectation on China's industrial production. 3) De inventory of industrial finished products. This week, rebar social inventory, electrolytic aluminum inventory and coking coal inventory have been removed, while port iron ore inventory continues to rise at a high level. 4) The land market is still cold and the terminal demand has warmed up. This week, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 9.8% month on month; Last week, although the land transaction area of Baicheng increased by 58.2% month on month, it was only 1 / 3 in the same period of 2019 and 1 / 4 in the same period of 2020. For the third time, the requirements for centralized land supply were relaxed, but the developers still chose to "lie flat". The average daily sales of passenger cars last week, the national film box office this week and the subway passenger traffic in 9 major cities all picked up month on month, which may be related to the improvement of the epidemic situation in China. 5) Most of the spot black commodities fell, and pork prices continued to rise. The spot of thermal coal, coking coal and coke all fell this week, and the price of "double coke" fell by more than 10% this week. Brent crude oil fell 11.3% on Friday night, and the inflationary pressure on China's industrial products further eased. The wholesale price of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) fell 0.4% month on month this week, the wholesale price of vegetables, eggs and fruits fell, and the wholesale price of pork rose 2.2%.
Capital market: the capital level has tightened this week, the main stock indexes of A-Shares have risen and fallen, the yields of treasury bonds of all main maturities have declined, the US dollar index is flat and the RMB has depreciated. The money market, despite a net investment of 190 billion in open market operations this week, However, due to the issuance of government bonds, the net payment was 302.9 billion (last week, it was - 67.9 billion), which tightened the capital level this week. On Friday, dr007 and R007 increased by 12.3 BP and 22.1 BP respectively compared with last Friday. Next week, the net payment of government bonds will reach 363.2 billion, but the fiscal expenditure at the end of the month will also accelerate. Pay attention to the operation of the open market. In the stock market, the main stock indexes of A-Shares rose and fell this week, easing expectations. Next week, pay attention to overseas risk assets under the impact of the epidemic The impact of the sharp correction and the expected upgrading of platform supervision on the risk appetite of the A-share market. In the bond market, with the tightening of funds and the increase of the yield of 10-year US bonds by 5bp from Monday to Thursday, the yields of major maturities of treasury bonds all fell this week, especially the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds fell by 11.0bp to a low of 2.82%. The deletion of the expression of "managing the general monetary gate" in the third quarter monetary policy implementation report is the main reason for the rise of the market's expectation of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates. We believe that it is not necessary to fully relax monetary policy in the fourth quarter, and it may be implemented in early 2022. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index closed at 96.06 on Friday, unchanged from last Friday. This week, the onshore RMB depreciated by 0.16% against the US dollar and the offshore RMB depreciated by 0.10% against the US dollar. Possible reasons include China's expectation of monetary easing, the inclusion of 12 Chinese enterprises in the list of entities by the United States, and the release of the depreciation pressure accumulated by the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar at the same time as the US dollar strengthened in the early stage.
Risk tip: the steady growth is less than expected, the overseas epidemic is out of control again, and the geopolitical conflict is escalating.
