Last week (11.22-11.26), the stock index opened higher, the Shanghai index rose 0.10% to close at 3564.0 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.17% to close at 14777.17 points, the small and medium-sized 100 fell 1.44%, and the gem index rose 1.46%; In terms of industry sectors, nonferrous metals, steel, food and beverage led the increase; In terms of theme concepts, rare earth index, rare earth permanent magnet index and connecting plate index were among the top gainers; The average daily turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1180.124 billion, up 6.39% over the previous week, including 9.14% in Shanghai and 4.60% in Shenzhen; In terms of style, small and medium-sized stocks have a comparative advantage, of which Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 fell by 0.80% and China Stock Exchange 500 rose by 0.70%; In terms of exchange rate, the closing point of US dollar against RMB (CFETS) was 6.3913, up 0.16%; In terms of commodities, icewti crude oil fell 9.80%, Comex gold fell 3.20%, Nanhua iron ore index rose 7.37%, and DCE coking coal rose 7.95%.
The market maintains a volatile pattern and there is a driving force for style switching. The current market capacity is still slightly insufficient, indicating that the market has not yet stepped out of the shock range. We expect that in the next few weeks, both the CSI 300 index and the gem index will face direction choices. Investors are advised to chase up the high carefully and choose the next investment operation after the market direction is clear. The current pattern of liquidity and valuation differentiation is difficult to support the systematic market. It is expected that the market will remain volatile and present a structural market in the future. At the macro level, the scissors difference between PPI and CPI is expected to converge, and the financial sector and consumer sector are expected to relay the market of the cyclical sector. At the market level, the previous extreme valuation differentiation of the sector will also converge, and there is a demand for inflation in the stagflation financial and consumer sectors. To sum up, we expect that in the next 1-2 quarters, the trend of CSI 300 index dominated by financial sector and consumer sector will be stronger than the gem index dominated by Ning portfolio, and there is a strong driving force for style switching in the market.
The overseas epidemic is heating up again, which is expected to have a limited impact on China’s economy as a whole. Recently, who will B.1 1.529 strain (Omicron strain) is listed as a “concern variant”, which has a large number of mutations and is likely to be more infectious. At present, many countries in Europe have found confirmed or suspected cases of “Omicron strain”; the governor of New York announced that New York State has entered a “disaster emergency state” ； Israel announced that it would ban foreigners from entering the country, becoming the first country to block its borders to prevent mutant strains. Strictly prevent the spread of “Omicron, a mutant strain of covid-19 virus”, has become a new goal of global epidemic prevention. It is expected that more countries will introduce corresponding prevention and control measures to prevent the global economic recovery from being disturbed again. Affected by the spread of Omicron virus, European and American stock indexes fell sharply one after another last Friday. The crude oil and digital money markets once fell sharply, and the market panic increased. A-Shares may face some pressure next week. Current B.1 The number of samples of 1.529 strain is insufficient, so it is impossible to accurately judge its infectivity, and the market is more prone to panic. However, referring to the impact of delta strain, we expect that the Chinese government has enough experience and ability to deal with the next wave of epidemic, B.1 The overall impact of 1.529 strain on China’s economy is limited. Under the cross cyclical adjustment tone of China’s macro policy, China’s monetary policy will be more accurate and flexible. In the context of promoting economic restructuring and transformation to high-quality development, the state will increase targeted support for small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, green enterprises and high-tech enterprises, and maintain a reasonable and abundant liquidity in the A-share market as a whole. In the long run, with real estate and housing not fried and just broken, the asset allocation of Chinese residents will transfer from real estate and bank savings to the stock market, and the risk-free interest rate will gradually move down. China’s capital market is ushering in the trend of long bull and slow bull.
Investment suggestion: considering the 1-2 quarter leading time lag of global liquidity on commodity prices and the synchronous relationship between commodity prices and the economy, we believe that the rapid upward period of commodity prices has passed. It is expected that China may be in the stage of marginal decline in inflation and weakening economic prosperity in the fourth quarter, At this stage, it is suggested to allocate assets from the following four main lines: (1) the financial sector. At present, the valuation of track stocks has far exceeded that of other sectors, and there is a strong demand for make-up in the financial sector with undervalued value, especially in the securities sector. (2) Counter cyclical sector. In the fourth quarter, the marginal demand for exports and inventory replenishment weakened, and the counter cyclical sector may perform under the cross cyclical macroeconomic regulation and control. (3) the sector with booming production and sales. The performance improvement expectations from strong to weak are: national defense and military industry, household appliances, transportation and computers. (4) Downstream consumption sector. It is expected that the scissors gap between PPI and CPI will converge in the future, and the profit distribution of the industrial chain will shift from the upstream resource sector to the midstream manufacturing and downstream consumption sector. The consumption sector will probably achieve excess returns in the next half year. Pay attention to the downstream sector with price increase expectations, such as food and beverage.
Risk tip: macroeconomic downturn, recurrence of the epidemic, fluctuations in overseas markets, Sino US trade friction.
